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Hurricane JAVIER

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HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON SEP 13 2004
 
DVORAK NUMBERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND AFWA WERE 115 KT AND SAB CAME IN WITH 127 KT. LATEST RAW ODT
ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS CORRESPOND TO ABOUT 115 KT. THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY AGAIN BLENDS THESE NUMBERS TO GET 120 KT.  MICROWAVE DATA
SUGGESTS THAT A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL MAY BE FORMING. IF THIS IS THE
CASE...THEN THE INTENSIFICATION TREND SHOULD SLOW SOON.  JAVIER
REMAINS SOUTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...RESULTING IN SOME MODEST EASTERLY
SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE.  BY ALL ACCOUNTS...THE SHEAR SHOULD
REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AND WITH WARM WATER BELOW...I SEE
NO REASON WHY THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY AS INDICATED BY THE
GFDL AFTER 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS JAVIER AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE THROUGH 96 HOURS...WHEN IT WILL BE APPROACHING COOLER
WATERS.  EYEWALL CYCLES COULD...OF COURSE...CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY DURING THIS TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8...ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  THERE HAVE
BEEN ONLY MODEST CHANGES TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING AND FORECAST
TRACK. THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAS ONLY A WEAK
STEERING REFLECTION IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND THIS COULD ALLOW A
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER...RIDGING INCREASES OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AS THE
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES LIFTS OUT. IT IS
LIKELY THAT THIS RIDGING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TURN JAVIER'S TRACK
BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND KEEP JAVIER WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO SOON TO RULE OUT AN
IMPACT THERE.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS LARGELY SPLIT INTO TWO MAIN
OPTIONS AT THIS TIME.  THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS CONTINUE TO
TAKE JAVIER SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN
FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN FAVORING THIS SCENARIO.
ALTERNATIVELY...THE GFS IS EVEN SLOWER AND MORE WESTWARD.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/2100Z 15.5N 106.3W   120 KT
 12HR VT     14/0600Z 16.2N 107.1W   125 KT
 24HR VT     14/1800Z 17.0N 107.7W   115 KT
 36HR VT     15/0600Z 17.8N 108.2W   115 KT
 48HR VT     15/1800Z 18.6N 109.0W   115 KT
 72HR VT     16/1800Z 20.0N 110.5W   115 KT
 96HR VT     17/1800Z 22.0N 112.5W   100 KT
120HR VT     18/1800Z 24.0N 114.5W    80 KT
 
 
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