Tropical Storm ERIKA
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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2003
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT MON AUG 18 2003
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
26.0N 100.0W 40 1 X X 41 BROWNSVILLE TX 65 X X X 65
26.0N 103.0W 11 19 X X 30 GULF 28N 93W 2 X X X 2
26.0N 106.0W X 15 8 X 23 GULF 28N 95W 12 X X X 12
MMSO 238N 982W 4 X 1 X 5 GULF 27N 96W 70 X X X 70
PORT O CONNOR TX 9 1 X X 10 GULF 25N 96W 35 1 X X 36
CORPUSCHRISTI TX 30 X X X 30
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1PM SAT TO 1AM SUN
C FROM 1AM SUN TO 1PM SUN
D FROM 1PM SUN TO 1PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER AVILA
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