Tropical Storm ERIKA
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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2003
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2003
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
26.0N 92.0W 45 2 X X 47 FREEPORT TX X 12 7 1 20
26.0N 95.0W 1 29 X X 30 PORT O CONNOR TX X 10 11 1 22
26.0N 97.5W X 8 14 1 23 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X 5 16 2 23
MMSO 238N 982W X 1 9 4 14 BROWNSVILLE TX X 9 13 1 23
MMTM 222N 979W X X 2 3 5 GULF 29N 87W 2 X X X 2
VENICE FL 29 X X X 29 GULF 28N 89W 39 X X X 39
TAMPA FL 4 X X X 4 GULF 28N 91W 38 1 1 X 40
BURAS LA 4 1 X X 5 GULF 28N 93W 16 17 X X 33
NEW ORLEANS LA 2 X 1 X 3 GULF 28N 95W 1 24 2 X 27
NEW IBERIA LA 2 4 1 1 8 GULF 27N 96W X 23 5 X 28
PORT ARTHUR TX X 7 4 1 12 GULF 25N 96W X 18 4 X 22
GALVESTON TX X 12 5 1 18
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT
C FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT
D FROM 2PM SAT TO 2PM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER AVILA
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