Tropical Storm NICHOLAS

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TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192003
2100Z SUN OCT 19 2003
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  47.5W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  47.5W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  47.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.3N  47.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.8N  48.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.4N  49.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.2N  50.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.5N  52.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 25.5N  52.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 29.0N  52.0W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N  47.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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