Tropical Storm NICHOLAS

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TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192003
0300Z SUN OCT 19 2003
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  48.2W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE  30SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  80SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  48.2W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  48.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.4N  48.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.9N  48.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N  49.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.4N  49.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.1N  51.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 23.1N  52.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 25.2N  53.6W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N  48.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
 
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