Tropical Storm NICHOLAS

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TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192003
1500Z FRI OCT 17 2003
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  48.3W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 75NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE  50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  80SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  48.3W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  48.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.9N  48.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 75NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.7N  49.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 75NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.4N  49.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 75NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.1N  50.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.0N  51.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  75SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.5N  52.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N  53.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N  48.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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