Tropical Storm NICHOLAS

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TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192003
0900Z FRI OCT 17 2003
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  48.0W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 75NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE  50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  50SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  48.0W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N  47.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.9N  48.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.8N  49.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.6N  49.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.4N  50.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 75NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.3N  51.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  55SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 20.5N  52.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 21.5N  53.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N  48.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
 
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