Tropical Storm NICHOLAS
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TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192003
1500Z THU OCT 16 2003
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 46.2W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 46.2W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 45.9W
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.8N 47.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.9N 47.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.7N 48.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.5N 49.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.5N 50.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 20.0N 51.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 22.0N 52.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 46.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
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