Tropical Storm NICHOLAS

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TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192003
0900Z THU OCT 16 2003
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N  45.8W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 100SE  60SW  70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N  45.8W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N  45.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.1N  46.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.3N  47.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.3N  48.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.3N  48.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.0N  50.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 19.0N  51.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 21.0N  52.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N  45.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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