Tropical Depression FIFTEEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152003
1500Z THU SEP 25 2003
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N  61.0W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N  61.0W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N  61.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.5N  61.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...175NE 100SE   0SW  25NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 32.0N  61.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...175NE 100SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 33.5N  61.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...175NE 100SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 35.0N  62.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...175NE 100SE  30SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 40.0N  63.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...175NE 100SE  30SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 46.0N  62.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...ABSORBED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N  61.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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