Tropical Storm ERIKA
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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082003
0900Z FRI AUG 15 2003
AT 4 AM CDT...090Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST FROM PORT O'CONNOR
SOUTHWARD TO BROWNSVILLE..
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM THE
RIO GRANDE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO SOTO LA MARINA AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS NOW RECOMMENDED FOR THIS AREA.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 89.4W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 21 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 0SE 0SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 89.4W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 88.3W
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.2N 92.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 26.0N 95.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 25.8N 98.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 25.4N 99.8W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 26.5N 102.5W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...INLAND DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 89.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
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