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Tropical Storm MARTY

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2003
 
THE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED...BUT BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A
1632Z SSMI PASS...THE UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION IS 285/06.  THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS.  THE NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS A
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION FOR 5 DAYS WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
THE OTHER EXTREME IS THE GFDL WHICH SHOWS A TURN TO THE NORTH BY 72
HOURS INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE OTHER
GUIDANCE MODELS ARE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS SOMEWHAT TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AFTER 72 HOURS.
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES GIVE 30 TO 35 KNOTS.  HOWEVER A RECENT
30 KNOT SURFACE WIND OBSERVATION FROM MANZANILLO MIGHT SUGGEST THAT
THE WINDS ARE HIGHER AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 40
KNOTS.  THE GFDL MODEL BRINGS THE WINDS TO 95 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS
WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL IS TO 70 KNOTS IN 60 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS TO 75 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS.  COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIKELY ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72
HOURS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/2100Z 17.1N 107.7W    40 KT
 12HR VT     20/0600Z 17.4N 108.6W    45 KT
 24HR VT     20/1800Z 17.9N 109.9W    55 KT
 36HR VT     21/0600Z 18.3N 111.3W    65 KT
 48HR VT     21/1800Z 19.0N 112.9W    75 KT
 72HR VT     22/1800Z 21.3N 116.6W    75 KT
 96HR VT     23/1800Z 23.5N 118.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     24/1800Z 26.0N 120.0W    50 KT
 
 
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