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Tropical Storm LINDA

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TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2003

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LINDA CONTINUES TO GET BETTER
ORGANIZED...WITH A GOOD CURVED BAND PATTERN AND THE BEGINNINGS OF A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT
FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET TO 55 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 315/8.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
LINDA IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS SHOULD
MOVE LINDA GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO.  THIS
SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS LINDA
REACHES COLDER WATER...WEAKENS...AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST.  MOST NHC GUIDANCE AGREES WITH
THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  LINDA
SHOULD REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR WARM-WATER ENVIRONMENT FOR 24-36 HR...
AND THUS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE.  AFTER THAT...COLDER
WATER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 18.6N 111.9W    55 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 19.6N 113.0W    65 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 20.7N 114.7W    70 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 21.4N 116.4W    65 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 21.8N 117.6W    60 KT
 72HR VT     18/0600Z 22.0N 120.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     19/0600Z 22.0N 122.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     20/0600Z 22.0N 125.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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