Tropical Depression TWO-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON JUN 16 2003
 
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 OR 25 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/04. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH IS RESULTING IN WEAK
STEERING FLOW AROUND THE CYCLONE. THE GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE
DEPRESSION VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE
NEXT 3 DAYS AND THEN DRIFT IT SLOWLY WESTWARD AFTER THAT. ALL OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS POORLY INITIALIZED THE CENTER AS MUCH AS 4
DEGREES TOO FAR SOUTH...SO ONLY THE GENERAL MOTION TREND AND NOT
THE SPECIFIC VORTEX LOCATIONS WERE USED FOR THIS FORECAST. THE
NOGAPS MODEL HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THE INITIAL LOCATION AT
18Z...SO IT WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED ALONG WITH THE CLIPER AND DEEP BAM
MODELS.

DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND AND POSSIBLE DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT...ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS
WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER THAT AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS OVER MUCH
COOLER WATER. THE SHIPS MODEL ONLY BRINGS THE DEPRESSION UP TO 43
KT IN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER DUE TO
THE SHIPS OUTPUT BEING BASED ON A RATHER FAST MEDIUM BAM FORECAST.
THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE AND THE ONLY
REAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HOW MUCH...IF
ANY...DRY AIR FROM MEXICO WILL GET WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM. IF LAND
EFFECTS AND DRY AIR DO NOT AFFECT THE CYCLONE...THEN IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT HURRICANE STRENGTH COULD BE REACHED IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.

NOTE: DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TUESDAY MORNING. THE TPC HAS BEEN
UNABLE TO CONTACT THE MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE BY TELEPHONE.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0300Z 16.5N 103.1W    25 KT
 12HR VT     17/1200Z 17.1N 103.3W    30 KT
 24HR VT     18/0000Z 17.6N 103.7W    35 KT
 36HR VT     18/1200Z 18.1N 104.3W    40 KT
 48HR VT     19/0000Z 18.5N 105.1W    50 KT
 72HR VT     20/0000Z 18.5N 106.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     21/0000Z 18.5N 108.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     22/0000Z 18.5N 109.0W    30 KT
 
 
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