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Tropical Storm MINDY

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2003

AS SUSPECTED EARLIER...MINDY NO LONGER HAS TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS.  THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND PEAK WINDS OF 32 KT
AT 1500 FT AND A RATHER FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE VORTEX. 
ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER...THE CONVECTION IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED AND CONTINUES TO
BE SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST.  THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT THE SHEAR
WILL RELAX ANY TIME SOON...SO NO RE-INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED. 
HOWEVER...AS NOTED EARLIER....THESE SHEARED SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN KNOWN
TO SURPRISE US.

INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE EAST OF NORTH...015/08.  MINDY IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.  THE TRACK
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS TROUGH WILL CARRY MINDY NORTHEASTWARD TO
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR A FEW DAYS.  HOWEVER BASED ON THE LATEST
GLOBAL MODEL RUNS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MINDY'S
EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT IS LIKELY TO MERGE WITH A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
MINDY.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/2100Z 25.8N  71.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     13/0600Z 26.7N  70.8W    30 KT
 24HR VT     13/1800Z 27.7N  68.8W    30 KT
 36HR VT     14/0600Z 28.6N  66.8W    30 KT
 48HR VT     14/1800Z 30.0N  64.0W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     15/1800Z 32.0N  58.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     16/1800Z 35.0N  52.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     17/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
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