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Tropical Storm MINDY

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TROPICAL STORM MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2003
 
MINDY IS NOT AN IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING SYSTEM ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AT
THIS TIME.  THERE IS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW CLOUD CENTER WITH THE MAIN
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT 90NM TO THE EAST.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS
HAVE COME DOWN BUT WE WILL WAIT UNTIL THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATES THE CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON TO CONFIRM WHETHER
MINDY HAS WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION.  THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST...HOWEVER WE ARE ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING SINCE THESE SHEARED SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO
SURPRISE US.  THIS IS ALSO IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS
MODEL.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/8.  MINDY IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY IN FORWARD SPEED FOLLOWING A GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST...AS IT RESPONDS TO A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF
THE U.S. EAST COAST. HOWEVER THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY BYPASS MINDY AND LEAVE THE CYCLONE
IN AN AREA OF WEAKER STEERING CURRENTS.  THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
INDICATES A SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE PERIOD.  

EVEN THOUGH THE TRACK TAKES MINDY SOUTH OF BERMUDA...INTERESTS IN
THE ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
FORECASTER PASCH/MAINELLI
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/1500Z 25.2N  71.8W    35 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 26.8N  70.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 28.8N  67.8W    40 KT
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 30.6N  64.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     14/1200Z 32.0N  61.0W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     15/1200Z 34.5N  54.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     16/1200Z 36.0N  49.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     17/1200Z 36.5N  45.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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