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Hurricane JUAN

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HURRICANE JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2003
 
THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED PRIMARILY IN A WELL DEFINED CURVED BAND TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN
INTERMETTENT. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS. THERE IS SOME
OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE JUAN REACHES COOL
WATERS AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 72 HOURS. IN FACT...THE GFDL
MAKES JUAN A 92-KNOT HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS AND SHIPS SHOWS
ADDITIONAL STRAIGHTENING. AS USUAL...IT IS UNCERTAIN IF JUAN WILL
CROSS NOVA SCOTIA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR IN TRANSITION TO
EXTRATROPICAL. THE LATTER CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.
HOWEVER...I WOULD BE PREPARED FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8
KNOTS...EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE UNITED STATES. THIS
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST KEEPING JUAN ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD
TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST THE SYSTEM CROSSING
NOVA SCOTIA BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. 
  
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/2100Z 33.0N  62.2W    65 KT
 12HR VT     27/0600Z 34.3N  62.6W    70 KT
 24HR VT     27/1800Z 36.5N  63.3W    75 KT
 36HR VT     28/0600Z 39.5N  63.5W    75 KT
 48HR VT     28/1800Z 42.5N  63.5W    65 KT
 72HR VT     29/1800Z 54.0N  60.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     30/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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