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Hurricane JUAN

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HURRICANE JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2003
 
HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT JUAN HAS DEVELOPED AN
EYE-LIKE FEATURE BUT THE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE IS NOT
VERY DEEP. IN GENERAL...THIS PATTERN CORRESPONDS TO AN INTENSITY OF
65 KNOTS. LASTEST AMSU ESTIMATES FROM CIRA/NESDIS INDICATE A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 985 MB AND 66-KNOT WINDS AND THE
LATEST AMSU CIMSS ESTIMATE IS 986 MB. INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEN
ADJUSTED TO 65 KNOTS MAKING JUAN A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...THIS
INTENSITY IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SLIGHT STRENGHTENING BEFORE JUAN REACHES COOL WATERS AND BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL IN 72 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND GFDL
INTENSITY FORECASTS.
 
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS.
THE HURRICANE IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE UNITED
STATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL MOVE JUAN ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD
TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY BRINGS THE
SYSTEM OVER EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS.
 
AS USUAL...THE MOST UNCERTAIN PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS TO
DETERMINE IF JUAN WILL CROSS NOVA SCOTIA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR
IN TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL. THE LATTER IS THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO. HOWEVER...I WOULD BE PREPARED FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/1500Z 32.2N  62.0W    65 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 33.7N  62.6W    70 KT
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 35.5N  63.0W    70 KT
 36HR VT     28/0000Z 37.5N  63.5W    70 KT
 48HR VT     28/1200Z 40.0N  64.0W    70 KT
 72HR VT     29/1200Z 50.0N  61.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     30/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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