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Hurricane FABIAN

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HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2003
 
A NOAA P-3 RECON AIRCRAFT MADE AN EYE PENETRATION AROUND 02/2221Z AS
PART OF THE CBLAST RESEARCH PROJECT AND FOUND 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 125 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 944 MB. THE FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS EQUATE TO ABOUT 113 KT AT THE SURFACE...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE
INNER-CORE CONVECTION NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS ALSO WEAKENED
AND BECOME MORE RAGGED IN APPEARANCE...AND AS A RESULT...SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE ALSO DECREASED.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/08. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONINGS. THE GLOBAL MODELS
REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY
APPROACHING THE U.S. EAST COAST BY 72 HOURS AND ERODING THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS ALLOWS
FABIAN TO EVENTUALLY TURN NORTHWARD BY 72 HOURS AND THEN RECURVE
NORTHEASTWARD IN THE LATER PERIODS.

FABIAN IS EXPECTED TO ONLY SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS
DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THEN WEAKEN MORE
RAPIDLY BY 96 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE MOVES OVER COOLER WATER.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN AND AROUND BERMUDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FABIAN.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0300Z 21.1N  61.6W   115 KT
 12HR VT     03/1200Z 22.0N  62.7W   115 KT
 24HR VT     04/0000Z 23.4N  63.9W   110 KT
 36HR VT     04/1200Z 25.0N  65.1W   105 KT
 48HR VT     05/0000Z 27.2N  66.0W   105 KT
 72HR VT     06/0000Z 32.0N  66.5W   100 KT
 96HR VT     07/0000Z 39.0N  62.5W    85 KT
120HR VT     08/0000Z 47.0N  52.0W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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