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Tropical Storm FABIAN

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TROPICAL STORM FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2003

FABIAN IS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY RAGGED CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND PATTERN
THIS MORNING...WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NOW TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CENTER.  THE STORM REMAINS IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 55 KT...SO THE
MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/18.  FABIAN REMAINS SOUTH OF A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HR. 
THIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. 
AFTER 72 HR...LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. 
THIS RESULTS IN THOSE MODELS SHOWING FABIAN TURNING NORTHWESTWARD
AFTER 96 HR.  GIVEN THE USUAL UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT WHEN AND HOW SUCH
A TURN MAY OCCUR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT YET SHOW
THAT MUCH OF A TURN.  INSTEAD...IT IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF AND FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...AND THEN SHOWS A
LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD MOTION.  THIS TRACK IS ON THE SOUTH EDGE OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND GFDL...AND THE 120 HR FORECAST POSITION IS
SOUTHWEST OF THOSE MODEL FORECASTS.

LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW SEVERAL DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS TO THE
UPPER-LEVEL WIND FORECASTS ALONG THE PATH OF FABIAN.  FOR THE MOST
PART...THEY FORECAST FAVORABLE LIGHT SHEAR CONDITIONS THAT SHOULD
ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO INTENSIFY.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS BOTH
FORECAST FABIAN TO REACH 85-90 KT BY 72 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL NOT BE THAT AGRESSIVE...BUT DOES CALL FOR FABIAN TO REACH 80
KT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0900Z 15.5N  42.7W    50 KT
 12HR VT     29/1800Z 15.8N  45.2W    55 KT
 24HR VT     30/0600Z 16.4N  47.9W    60 KT
 36HR VT     30/1800Z 17.2N  50.3W    65 KT
 48HR VT     31/0600Z 17.8N  52.2W    70 KT
 72HR VT     01/0600Z 19.0N  56.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     02/0600Z 20.0N  59.5W    80 KT
120HR VT     03/0600Z 21.5N  63.5W    80 KT
 
 
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