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Tropical Storm DANNY

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TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2003
 
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THE DEPRESSION DEVELOPED CENTRAL CORE
CONVECTION. SINCE THEN...BANDING HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 35
KT...AND THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED ON THIS BASIS. OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO
THE NORTHWEST AND EXCELLENT TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR...HOWEVER...AS INDICATED BY MICROWAVE
IMAGERY...AND THE SURFACE CENTER IS LAGGING THE UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATION BY 30 OR 40 MILES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/8...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.  DANNY IS
MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE.  MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN QUALITATIVE AGREEMENT ON RECURVATURE WITHIN ABOUT 24
HOURS.  THE GFS APPEARS TO BE MUCH FASTER THAN MOST OF THE OTHER
MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL...GFDN...AND NOGAPS
MODELS.  DANNY IS UNLIKELY TO THREATEN ANY LAND AREAS.

WATER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE CYCLONE
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...AND DANNY SHOULD BE ABLE TO
STRENGTHEN SOME UNLESS THE SHEAR BECOMES UNEXPECTEDLY LARGE.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL
GUIDANCE.  ONCE DANNY GETS NORTH OF ABOUT 40 DEGREES LATITUDE...THE
WATER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CYCLONE SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING
TREND.
 
THE 2003 HURRICANE SEASON IS WELL AHEAD OF SCHEDULE.  DANNY...THE
FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...IS THE THIRD-EARLIEST FOURTH
TROPICAL STORM ON RECORD.  HOWEVER...PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT
NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.  SINCE 1900...ONLY TWO
SEASONS HAVE PRODUCED THEIR FOURTH TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM OF
THE YEAR EARLIER THAN JULY 16TH...1959 AND 1997.  THESE TWO SEASONS
PRODUCED ONLY 11 AND 8 TROPICAL STORMS...RESPECTIVELY.  IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THOUGH THAT 1997 WAS AN EL-NINO YEAR AND IS NOT A GOOD
ANALOG FOR 2003.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0300Z 32.9N  55.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     17/1200Z 34.0N  56.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     18/0000Z 35.5N  56.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     18/1200Z 37.5N  55.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     19/0000Z 39.0N  54.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     20/0000Z 41.5N  49.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     21/0000Z 41.5N  43.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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