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Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE

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TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2003
 
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN TRAVERSING THE STORM DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS AND FOUND THAT THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH.  SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS STILL AT 992 MB.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS ARE 65 KTS...VERY SIMILAR TO EARLIER VALUES...SO THE MAXIMUM
WINDS REMAIN AT 55 KTS.
 
BECAUSE THE STORM REMAINS IN A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT...FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY. ANY SMALL RELAXATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS COULD BRING CLAUDETTE TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN ONE OF THESE
BURSTS OF CONVECTION.
 
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IT APPEARS THAT CLAUDETTE HAS BEEN
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AND MAY BE STARTING
TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE SLOWLY BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. 
ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST
TRACK WITH LANDFALL ON THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT 2 DAYS.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND REQUIRES AN ADJUSTMENT IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AND THE
ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. 
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN/STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0900Z 26.3N  92.5W    55 KT
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 26.8N  93.1W    55 KT
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 27.2N  94.3W    60 KT
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 27.5N  95.7W    65 KT
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 27.7N  97.3W    65 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     17/0600Z 28.2N  99.7W    25 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     18/0600Z 29.0N 102.4W    15 KT...INLAND

 
 
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