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Tropical Storm ANA

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TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED APR 23 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IT IS BECOMING VERY DIFFICULT TO
SEPARATE THE CIRCULATION AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OF ANA FROM THE
NEARBY FRONTAL ZONE.  LATEST QUIKSCAT SHOWS WINDS OF 35 KNOTS NORTH
OF THE CENTER PRIMARILY WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE AND ONLY 20 TO 25
KNOTS TO THE SOUTH.  WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

IF THE CYCLONE IS NOT EXTRATROPICAL BY NOW...IT SHOULD BECOME ONE IN
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY ANALYSIS FROM THE
CYCLONE PHASE EVOLUTION PROVIDED BY PENN STATE UNIVERSITY.  THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING OVER COLD WATER AND BECOME
FULLY EXTRATROPICAL.  A FEW CELLS OF CONVECTION MAY STILL RE-DEVELOP
TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
ANA IS MOVING EASTWARD OR 80 DEGREES ABOUT 11 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS
NOWHERE TO GO BUT EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WELL
ESTABLISHED WESTERLIES. ON THE LONGER RANGE...MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS BRING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT EXTRATROPICAL ANA TOWARD THE
EAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR THE AZORES. THEREAFTER...THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
 
THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THE EARLY SEASON TROPICAL STORM
ANA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0300Z 32.3N  48.9W    35 KTS
12HR VT     24/1200Z 32.5N  47.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     25/0000Z 33.0N  44.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     25/1200Z 33.5N  41.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     26/0000Z 34.0N  37.5W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     27/0000Z 36.5N  27.5W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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