000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311554
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat May 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Alvin is centered near 20.7N 109.5W at 
31/1500 UTC, moving north at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with 
gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas to 12 ft (4 M) are occurring within 60 
NM in the NE quadrant and within 45 NM in the SE, SW and NW 
quadrants. No significant convection is occurring surrounding 
Alvin. A slightly slower northward motion is expected through 
tonight. Alvin will weaken and become a remnant low and move to 
21.8N 109.7W this evening, and dissipate Sun morning. Swells 
generated by this system will affect portions of the coasts of 
west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula 
through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- 
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Alvin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N79W to 08N84W to 13N102W
to 06N128W. The ITCZ continues from 06N128W to beyond 07N140W. 
Numerous strong convection is occurring from 03N to 10N east of 
90W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N 
between 95W and 100W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Alvin. 

A 1013 mb low is centered near 29N119W offshore of Baja 
California Norte, and isolated showers are noted surrounding the 
low. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are occurring in
this region. Elsewhere, troughing has been analyzed over the 
Gulf of California, and gentle to moderate winds and slight seas 
are noted in this region. Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail in the 
entrance of the Gulf, due to swells from Alvin. Otherwise, 
ridging extends through the waters offshore of southern Mexico, 
supporting gentle to locally moderate E to SE winds and seas of 5
to 7 ft, with seas near 8 ft occurring offshore of Michoacan and
Colima, near Alvin. 

For the forecast, in addition to impacts from Post-Tropical 
Cyclone Alvin, gentle to locally moderate winds are expected 
across the Mexico offshore waters this weekend. A long-period SW 
swell will progress into the waters offshore of southwestern 
Mexico tonight, producing rough seas through Sun before seas 
diminish early next week. Elsewhere, new NW swell will promote 
rough seas offshore of Baja California Norte early next week. 
Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is likely to form by the 
middle part of next week offshore of the coasts of Central 
America and southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear 
favorable for some development of this system thereafter, and a 
tropical depression could form late next week while it moves 
generally westward to west-northwestward at around 5 to 10 mph. 
There is a medium chance of development in the next 7 days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Prevailing low pressure over northwestern Colombia maintains 
moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds in the Gulf of Papagayo. 
Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh SW winds are noted to the 
south of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds to the
north. A long period SW swell is moving through the waters 
offshore of Ecuador, with peak seas to 9 to 10 ft occurring south
of the Galapagos Islands, as seen on recent altimeter data. Seas
of 4 to 6 ft are noted elsewhere. Numerous strong thunderstorms 
occurring offshore of Nicaragua through Colombia, preceding a 
tropical wave in the central Caribbean, will produce gusty winds 
and rapidly building seas. 

For the forecast, a long-period, southern hemisphere swell will 
propagate northeastward through the equatorial waters this 
weekend, promoting rough seas offshore of Ecuador through Sun, 
and well offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador on Sun. Seas will 
subside early next week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure 
is likely to form by the middle part of next week offshore of the
coasts of Central America and southern Mexico. Environmental 
conditions appear favorable for some development of this system 
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late next week 
while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward at around
5 to 10 mph. There is a medium chance of development in the next
7 days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are occurring north of 
the ITCZ and west of 125W as a 1027 mb high prevails north of the
region, centered near 33N141W. Seas of 6 to 9 ft are noted in 
this area, as observed on recent SOFAR buoy data. Elsewhere, a 
southern hemisphere swell is promoting rough seas south of 15N 
and east of 130W, with peak seas near 10 ft. Gentle to moderate 
S to SE winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. 

For the forecast, rough seas in S to SW swell will propagate
northeastward today, impacting areas south of 17N and east of
125W through Sun, before seas subside early next week. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh NE winds and locally rough seas will prevail 
north of the ITCZ and west of 125W today. Fresh NE winds and 
rough seas are then expected north of 20N Sun into early next 
week as high pressure strengthens to the north. Looking ahead,
fresh to locally strong N winds and very rough seas will be
possible north of 25N between 120W and 135W by the middle of next
week as a weakening cold front approaches the region from the
north. 

$$
ADAMS