185 
AXPZ20 KNHC 120849
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon May 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale-force gap winds will
persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning, with a 
plume of rough seas reaching as far as 420 nm offshore. Winds and
seas will diminish through tonight as high pressure north of the
area weakens and shifts eastward.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N95W to 10N110W to 07N130W.
The ITCZ extends from 07N130W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 07N to 12N
between 95W and 115W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge is supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds across the
offshore waters of Baja California, and light to gentle winds  
elsewhere outside of the Tehuantepec region. Seas are 3 to 5 ft 
over open waters outside of the Tehuantepec area, except 1 to 3 
ft in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, aside from the gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec described in the Special Features section, a weak
cold front will move into Baja California Norte by late Tue, then
dissipate. High pressure building behind the front will enhance 
the NW winds to fresh conditions west of the Baja California 
peninsula through mid week, and large NW swell into Fri. Moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will 
prevail elsewhere. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE winds persist across the Papagayo region to
about 90W with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Light and variable winds are 
observed elsewhere, with the exception of gentle to locally 
moderate southerly winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands. Seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate the remainder of the offshore
forecast waters. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected 
in the Papagayo region through Fri, with fresh to strong pulsing 
at night from through mid week. Elsewhere mainly light to gentle 
winds are expected through early this week, except between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands where gentle to moderate 
southerly winds will persist. Slight to moderate seas, primarily 
in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere through the middle of the 
week. Looking ahead, expect moderate to rough seas, in long 
period SW swell, between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Wed 
through Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A ridge covers the waters north of 20N and west of 110W, 
supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds from 07N to 15N 
west of 120W. Recent altimeter satellite data showed up to 8 ft 
seas persisting from 05N to 15N, west of 135W. Gentle to moderate
winds and 5 to 7 ft are noted elsewhere in a mix of swell. 

For the forecast, a weak cold front will move into the US west
coast and Baja California Norte through late Tue. High pressure
will build in the wake of the front, and this pattern will support
moderate to fresh NE winds north of 05N and west of 120W through
early this week. Looking ahead, 8 to 9 ft NW swell will move 
into the waters north of 25N and west of 120W Tue and Wed, before
dissipating. 

$$
Christensen