000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171607
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat May 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N95W to 10N104W to
06N128W. The ITCZ continues from 06N129W to beyond 05N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 04N to 09N
between 114W and 128W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 02N to 14N E of 92W and from 04N to 08N W of 131W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging across the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California extending SE to the Revillagigedo Islands continue to 
support gentle to moderate NW winds and moderate seas. A surface
trough along the Gulf of California is generating moderate to
locally fresh SW winds over the northern portion of the Gulf with
5 ft seas. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, 
including the remainder of the Gulf of California, light and 
variable winds prevail with slight to moderate seas. 

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the 
weather pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California 
through the remainder weekend, supporting moderate to fresh NW 
winds and moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate 
seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere. A low pres 
is forecast to approach the northern Gulf of California this
evening, producing fresh to strong S to SW winds over the
northern Gulf. Rough seas generated by fresh to strong northerly
winds offshore California will reach the waters N of Punta 
Eugenia Sun night into Mon. Building seas to around 10 ft are 
expected. This swell will stay mainly N of Punta Eugenia before
subsiding Tue night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are across the Central America offshore
waters while gentle to moderate S winds are ongoing between the
coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands with moderate seas to
7 ft in SW swell. Otherwise, scattered showers and thunderstorms
are ongoing across the Central America offshore waters associated
with the monsoon trough. Scatterometer data show fresh to strong
southerly winds with the strongest thunderstorms over the Panama
offshore waters.  

For the forecast, abundant moisture drawn in by a very moist and
unstable southerly wind flow will persist across the offshore 
waters of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia through the
remainder weekend, supporting the development and continuation of
scattered showers and thunderstorms over this area. Light to
gentle winds are forecast across the Central America offshore
waters through mid-week. Gentle to moderate S winds will prevail  
between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands with 
moderate seas.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

High pressure of 1031 mb is located NW of area near 33N145W. Its
associated ridge dominates the waters north of the ITCZ and west
of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to 
fresh winds N of the ITCZ and W of 120W. Rough seas are within 
these winds. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted
elsewhere in a mix of swell.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support
moderate to fresh NE winds north of the ITCZ and W of 120W 
through early next week. The NW swell will combine with wind 
waves to keep and area of rough seas over the west-central waters
this weekend, particularly from 10N to 20N W of 130W. A new 
swell event will reach the N waters Sun night into Mon, building 
seas to around 10 ft N of 25N between 120W and 130W by Mon 
night.

$$
Ramos