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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262033
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jan 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong cold front has passed
by north of the area in the Gulf of Mexico with northerly gale-
force winds ushered in its wake in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds
currently up to around 40 kt, and seas are 8 to 14 ft. Gale-
force winds will persist into Sat, peaking around 45 kt tonight.
Seas will peak around 18 ft near 14N95.5W later early Fri. 
Meanwhile, the extent of 12 ft seas will extend southward to 
around 10N and westward to around 100W by Fri. Conditions will 
gradually improve Sat night into Sun. Please read the latest NWS 
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 08N81W to 05N91W. 
The ITCZ axis extends from 05N91W to 05N126 to beyond 06N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06N E of 89W.



OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on the
gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

A strong high pressure is centered well northwest of the area. 
Strong NW to N winds are occurring over the Gulf of California 
including south of the entrance with seas of 6 to 9 ft south of 
30N. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail over the Baja 
California offshore waters, except locally strong downwind of 
Baja California gaps. Seas are ranging 7-10 ft in NW swell 
offshore Baja California southeast to around 107W. Elsewhere, 
gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail over the remainder 
of the Mexican offshore waters with seas ranging 4-7 ft in mixed 
swell.

For the forecast, out of the the gale in the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
strong to near- gale NW winds will persist over the Gulf of 
California through Fri with seas building to 7-10 ft. Moderate to
fresh N-NE winds will prevail west of Baja California, except 
plumes of strong NE winds will occur downwind of gaps, filtering 
through from the Gulf of California. Conditions over Baja 
California offshore waters and the Gulf of California will 
improve Fri night, with the NW swell of 7-10 ft subsiding as 
well. A cold front may approach the Baja California peninsula Mon
with building winds and seas from Punta Eugenia northward. A new
set of large NW swell may arrive offshore Baja California Mon 
night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong NE-E gap winds prevail over the waters of the Gulf of 
Papagayo region, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to 
locally moderate winds prevail across the rest of the offshore 
waters, with seas of 4-6 ft in mixed SW and NW swell. 

For the forecast, high pressure over the Caribbean will force 
fresh to strong NE winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region into 
next week, with near gale-force at times. Seas will build to 8-11
ft tonight through Sat night. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds 
will develop in the Gulf of Panama tonight, then increase to 
fresh to strong Fri night through Sun with seas building to 6-8 
ft. Meanwhile, swell from the developing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap 
wind will cause seas to build to 8-12 ft tonight into Sat night 
in the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Large NW swell of 8-11 ft is moving across our waters north of
03N and west of 108W. Seas are 5-7 ft in NW swell elsewhere, 
except mixed with SW swell east of around 110W. Meanwhile, strong
high pressure is centered well north of the area. This high 
along with lower pressures along the ITCZ supports moderate to 
fresh NE-E winds north of the ITCZ and west of 115W. Gentle to 
moderate S winds are occurring south of the ITCZ and across the 
remainder of the waters north of the ITCZ.

For the forecast, the set of NW swell will continue progressing 
southeastward through Fri. Seas will then slowly subside through
the weekend. A new set of NW swell will drop south of 30N early 
next week behind a cold front, along with fresh winds. Meanwhile,
the moderate to fresh tradewinds will continue through early 
next week.

$$
KONARIK

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Page last modified: Thursday, 26-Jan-2023 20:33:55 UTC