AXPZ20 KNHC 070331
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
119 UTC Sun Jun 7 2020
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N95W to 1010 mb low
pres near 09N113W to 06N123W. The ITCZ continues from 06N123W to
06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N
between 83W and 87W, and from 08N to 10N between 101W and 107W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convention is just W of the
above mentioned low pres from 08.5N to 10N between 113W and
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
The threat of additional heavy rainfall over southern Mexico has
diminished, as Tropical Storm Cristobal continues to move away
from the region. A return to a more climatological monsoon trough
pattern and rainfall regime is expected across Central America
and southern Mexico during the next several days.
A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and a meandering trough
over Baja California and the Gulf of California will support
fresh to strong NW-N north of Cabo San Lazaro tonight into Sun.
By Sun night, the fresh to strong NW-N winds will roughly cover
the waters N of 26N between Baja California and 125W. A new swell
event from the NW combined with SW swell will also affect the
waters N of Punta Eugenia Sun night into Mon, with seas building
to 9-13 ft. This swell event will propagate across the waters N
of Cabo San Lazaro on Mon. Winds and seas will diminish through
midweek as the pressure gradient relaxes across the region.
In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate winds will
prevail. Elsewhere, light to gentle flow will continue across
the rest of the region, with stronger gusts likely in ongoing
monsoon trough convection SW of the Tehuantepec region.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
The threat of additional heavy rainfall over Central America has
diminished, as Tropical Storm Cristobal continues moving
northward across the north-central Gulf of Mexico. A return to a
more climatological monsoon trough pattern and rainfall regime
is expected across Central America and southern Mexico during the
next several days.
The monsoon trough axis, which was drawn northward by the recent
Central American Gyre event, is analyzed across the offshore
waters off southern Mexico and Central America, crossing western
Panama. Gentle to moderate SW-W winds will prevail across the
offshore waters, with the exception of S winds between Ecuador
and the Galapagos Islands. Cross equatorial SW swell will
continue to propagate across the region, with seas building 8-9
ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands late Mon into Tue.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1031 mb located near 40N142W extends a ridge
across the northern forecast waters to near Clarion Island. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the
vicinity of the ITCZ will support an area of fresh to locally
strong trade winds from 12N to 18N W of 130W, with seas of 8-9
ft. These marine conditions are forecast to persist over the
next 48 hours.
Southerly swell will continue moving northward across the waters
S of 10N and E of 120W through Mon while subsiding. Another set
of long period southerly swell will reach the waters S of the
equator on Mon, building seas to 8 ft.