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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292144
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2126 UTC Sun Mar 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N84W to 06N95W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N95W to beyond 04N140W. No significant
convection is noted at this time.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the north central Pacific east-
southeast toward Baja California Sur. Recent scatterometer
satellite data shows moderate to fresh winds off Baja California
Norte, with generally moderate NW winds off Baja California and 
over the Gulf of California. The winds off Baja California Norte
have started to increase slightly this afternoon, as high
pressure builds west of the area. Concurrent altimeter satellite
data shows seas are 5 to 7 ft off Baja California. Farther 
south, gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are ongoing. 
No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted at this 
time over Mexican offshore waters. 

For the forecast, NW winds will continue to increase this evening 
off Baja California Norte, between the strengthening high 
pressure west of the region, and the low pressure over central 
Mexico. The high pressure will weaken through mid-week allowing 
for winds off Baja California to diminish. Gentle west to 
northwest winds will dominate the waters between Cabo Corrientes 
and Tehuantepec through the period, except for a brief pulse of 
fresh to strong early Mon. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

High pressure north of the western Caribbean will maintain 
pulses of fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo 
region and off Nicaragua through this afternoon and tonight. 
Fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama will continue 
through this morning. Light to gentle winds are expected 
elsewhere across the offshore waters through through the middle 
of the upcoming week. 

No significant shower or thunderstorms are observed at this time
over the region.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge reaches from west to east north of 25N. This is
supporting a large area of fresh to strong trade wind flow from
about 08N to 20N west of 120W, as noted in various scatterometer
satellite passes and buoy data from the past several hours over 
the deep tropics. Concurrent altimeter satellite data showed 
seas of 8 to 12 ft in the area of fresh to strong winds. These 
are primarily shorter period wave related to the trade wind flow,
but also with components of longer period northerly swell. 
Farther east, light to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are 
noted over the tropical east Pacific. A surface trough persists 
along 135W near the ITCZ. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are ongoing near this trough.

Little change is expected in this pattern through early next 
week. The ridge will weaken into the middle part of the week, 
allowing for winds to diminish and wave heights to subside west 
of 120W.

$$
Christensen

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Page last modified: Sunday, 29-Mar-2020 21:44:43 UTC