686 
AXPZ20 KNHC 220406
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Feb 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: The next gap wind event 
across the Tehunatepec region is expected by Sun morning as a 
ridge builds across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre 
Mountains in Mexico, behind a cold front moving across the Gulf 
of America. Wind are forecast to suddenly increase to 35 to 40 
kt, with seas building to 9 to 12 ft on Sun. Then, winds will 
further increase to near storm force by Sun evening, with seas 
building to 12 to 18 ft. Gusty winds exceeding 50 kt are possible
late Sun into Mon. Winds are forecast to strengthen to storm 
force by Mon morning with seas building to 25 ft. Storm 
conditions and very rough seas are expected to persist through 
Mon night, then winds will diminish to strong gale force on Tue. 
Large seas generated from this very strong gap wind event will 
spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or 
greater reaching as far west as 105W by Mon night. Winds are 
forecast to diminish below gale force early on Wed. Marine 
interests transiting across or in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun 
through Tue should be aware of this upcoming gap wind event, and 
take the necessary action to avoid this hazardous marine 
conditions over the affected waters.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml 

Heavy Precipitation Event: Over the next several days the Pacific
coasts of Colombia, Ecuador and NW Peru are expecting heavy 
precipitation due to persisting moist onshore flow that will 
interact with the Andes Mountains. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 
inches (100 to 150 mm) are possible. The region should see the 
heaviest accumulations from Sun through Mon. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from 09N85W to 04N93W to 02N105W. The ITCZ 
continues from 02N106W to 02N124W to 06N140W. A second surface 
trough is analyzed from 01S112W to 02S134W. Widely scattered 
moderate convection is noted from the Equator to 09N and E of 
94W to the coast of Colombia.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Storm Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please,
see the Special Features section for more details. 

A ridge extending from a 1021 mb high near 33N120W covers the 
Baja California offshore waters and supports gentle to moderate 
moderate NW winds along with moderate seas in NW swell. Fresh to
strong NW winds are along the Gulf of California S of 29N with 
seas of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh NW winds are also noted 
beyond the entrance to the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and slight
to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure over the Great Basin will
continue to induce fresh to strong NW winds across the entire 
Gulf of California tonight into Mon with seas potentially building
to 8 ft across the central and southern parts of the Gulf 
through Sun. Looking ahead, a vigorous cold front pushing across
the Gulf of America will support a storm-force gap wind event 
across the Tehuantepec region on Mon. Very large seas are will 
accompany this very strong gap wind event, propagating well away 
from the source region. Please, see the Special Features section 
for more information.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE winds are over the Papagayo region and downwind
to near 90W. Seas are to 6 ft within these wind speeds. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds with seas of 2 to 4 ft are 
observed. Otherwise, scattered moderate convection persists 
across the offshore waters N of the Equator to about 08N and E of
90W. 

For the forecast, high pressure over Central America will 
support fresh to locally strong NE to E gap winds over the 
Papagayo region through Sun night. These winds are forecast to 
strengthen to 25 to 30 kt on Mon with seas building to 10 ft. 
Minimal gale conditions and rough seas could be possible Tue 
morning through Wed morning as the pressure gradient tightens 
over the NW Caribbean. This will also support fresh to locally 
strong NE winds downwind of the Gulf of Panama and just S of the 
Azuero Peninsula to about 03N. Seas to 8 ft will likely be 
associated with these winds. In addition, seas generated in the 
Tehuantepec region are forecast to propagate across the offshore 
waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Sun night through Tue night 
with seas building to 20 ft across the outer offshore waters.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge dominates most of the northern forecast waters N
of 17N and W of 110W, including the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ supports an area of moderate to fresh trade
winds from 07N to 14N W of 114W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate 
or weaker and seas are 4 to 7 ft. 

For the forecast, a cold front over the NW waters will slowly
move across the NW waters, extending from 30N138W to 28N140W by 
Sun night. Fresh to strong southerly winds and moderate to rough 
seas are expected ahead of the front Sun night through Mon night.
A new set of long period NW swell will follow the front, 
building seas to 13 or 14 ft over the NW corner of the forecast 
region on Mon. In the meantime, high pressure will continue to 
dominate the waters between the front and Baja California Norte.

$$
Ramos