Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXPZ20 KNHC 020802

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Mar 2 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0745 UTC.


Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build south
across eastern Mexico in the wake of a cold front that will move
across the Gulf of Mexico through mid-week. Fresh to strong 
northerly gap winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by 
around sunrise today, increasing to minimal gale force this
evening. Winds should diminish back to fresh to strong early 
Wed, then will persist through the end of the week. Seas will 
peak around 12-13 ft during the gale force winds. Looking ahead, 
another gale force gap wind event is possible in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec Sat night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas 
Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

Heavy Rainfall in Western Colombia: Enhanced westerly flow 
damming up against the Andes Mountains will lead to significant 
moisture pooling over western Colombia. This combined with a 
surface trough north of the area and warmer than normal ocean 
temperatures will lead to very heavy rains over the mountainous 
terrain over the next few days. This heavy rain could lead to 
flash flooding and mudslides. Please refer to local statements
issued by your national meteorological agency.


A surface trough extends from 1008 mb low pressure over northern
Colombia near 10N75W to 03N82W to 04N98W. The ITCZ continues from
04N98W to 05N120W to 05N130W, then resumes from 04N137W to
04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 05N
between 89W and 93W, from 05N to 07N between 120W and 125W, and
from 03N to 08N between 128W and 136W.


Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a
developing Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale event.

A weak pressure pattern extends across the waters west of Baja
California, while a tight pressure gradient persists over
northwest mainland Mexico supporting fresh to strong winds in 
the Gulf of California. These winds are filtering through gaps in
the higher elevations of Baja California. Seas are up to 7-8 ft 
near the entrance to the Gulf of California with these winds. 
The fresh to strong winds will persist through the next few hours.
Seas will subside as the winds diminish. A decaying cold front 
will move across the Baja California region Wed night into Thu. 
Southerly winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California 
Wed and increase to fresh to strong by Wed evening, diminishing 
early Thu.

Otherwise, gentle to moderate N-NE winds prevail offshore of 
Mexico, except light and variable east of 102W. NW swell of 5-8 
ft prevails north of 20N and west of Baja California. This swell 
will continue to decay today. Additional sets of NW swell are 
forecast late Wed through the end of the week and into the 


Please see Special Features Section above for details on heavy
rainfall and flooding potential over western Colombia over the 
next couple of days.

Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue across the Papagayo
region through early Fri, then again Sat night with seas 
building to around 8-9 ft each night. These fresh winds and 
higher seas will reach offshore to near 95W each afternoon.

Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will continue across the Gulf of
Panama and extend southward to 04.5N. 

Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 3-5 ft will 
dominate elsewhere through the week. No significant swell is 
forecast during the next several days.


A cold front extends from 30N130W to 28N140W. Recent
scatterometer data showed fresh to strong winds behind the cold
front. Winds may increase to near gale force later today as the 
parent low pressure area drops into the northern waters. There 
still is the potential for minimal gale force winds W of this 
low, although currently they are forecast to remain north of 30N 
where a gale warning is in place. Mariners traversing the area 
should monitor the latest forecast in case a gale warning is also
required south of 30N. The front will then gradually weaken 
though Wed as it moves SE and reaches the Baja offshore waters. 

Decaying NW swell N of 20N is still contributing to seas of 6-10
ft north of the ITCZ and west of 110W. New large northerly swell
is arriving behind the aforementioned cold front and backside of
the low. This swell will spread east-southeast through mid- 
week, peaking at around 16 ft near 30N134W tonight. Yet another 
round of large NW swell is expected to reach the far northwest 
waters toward the end of the week as a weaker cold front, with 
respect to associated winds, moves into the northern waters.


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 02-Mar-2021 08:02:28 UTC