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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



029 
AXPZ20 KNHC 261611
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun May 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of California Gale Warning...

Gale force SW gap winds have been occurring across the northern 
Gulf of California north of 29.5N during the last several hours, 
but have recently begun to diminish, as indicated by coastal 
observations across the area. Peak winds are now assumed at 30 
kt and less, and the gale warning is being allowed to expire. 
Winds will diminish throughout the day and then increase to 20 
to 30 kt this evening, just ahead of an approaching cold front. 
As the cold front moves eastward across the northen Gulf 
tonight, winds will decrease again and veer westerly, with NW 
winds around 25 kt spilling into the far northern end of the 
Gulf behind the front. Winds will then diminish to 20 kt or less 
during the late morning hours of Mon.

...Heavy Rainfall Potential Over Central America...

A large low level cyclonic circulation that is typical for this 
time of the year, called a Central American Gyre, is forecast to 
persist across the far eastern tropical Pacific and Central 
America for the next several days. This will continue bringing 
abundant moisture and areas of heavy rainfall across portions of 
Central America. Computer model forecasts have begun to indicate 
the chance for increasing moisture and instability associated 
with this feature Tue through Wed and could lead to a very 
significant rainfall event. Life-threatening flash flooding and 
mudslides will be possible in areas of mountainous terrain. 
Please refer to your local meteorological service for more 
details. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 9.5N74W to low pres near 
11N88.5W 1010 MB TO 13.5N98W TO 08N115W TO 09.5N123W TO 
06.5N133W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N133W to beyond 06.5N140W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05.5N TO 
14N between 80W AND 106W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection was noted from 05.5N TO 12N between 119W AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Gulf of California: Please see special features section above 
for more on the gale event over the northern Gulf of California.
Over the central and southern parts of the Gulf, mainly light 
and variable winds prevail, with seas 2 ft or less. Winds will 
begin to shift more NW tonight through Mon as a series of weak 
cold frontal boundaries approach and sweep eastward across the 
northern Gulf tonight through Tuesday. Winds across central and 
southern portions will increase to 10-15 kt during this time 
with seas building 2-3 ft.

A weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters W of Baja 
California producing mainly gentle to moderate NW winds off the 
coast of the Baja California peninsula, and light to gentle NW 
to W winds over the remainder of the open waters off the coast 
of Mexico. Seas are generally in the 5-7 ft range across the 
entire area in a mix of NW and cross equatorial SW swell. High 
pressure well NW of the region will build over the next few 
days. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the 
offshore waters to support moderate to fresh NW to N winds 
across the waters off Baja California tonight through Tue night, 
with seas building into the 6 to 8 ft range. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region into early today, with 
seas will building to 8-9 ft. Winds and seas will diminish today 
and then pulse again to 20-25 kt again tonight.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see the Special Features section for more information 
about the Central American Gyre, which will continue to bring 
locally heavy rains to parts of Central America and the adjacent
offshore waters through at least mid week.

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail S of the monsoon 
trough, with seas in the 4-7 ft range. Moderate to locally fresh 
winds, and seas in the 5-6 ft range prevail N of the monsoon 
trough. Low pres embedded within the broad gyre will meander 
offshore the coast of Nicaragua the next couple of days. The 
monsoon trough will lift northward through the early part of the 
week, with southerly monsoon flow strengthening, potentially to 
20-25 kt by Tue. Seas will build to 8-12 ft by mid week in this 
enhanced monsoon flow.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure of 1025 mb centered NW of the area near 35N139W 
extends a ridge SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds 
across much of the area N of the ITCZ and W of 120W. Moderate to 
fresh winds will continue to prevail over this area the next 
several days.

SW cross equatorial swell will dominate the forecast waters S of 
10N and W of 95W for the next few days, with new swell arriving 
late Tue. Seas 8 ft or greater will cover much of the forecast 
waters S of 10N between 95W and 125W by early this week. 

$$
Stripling