000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110717
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Dec 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08.5N78W to 06.5N90W to 10N109W
to 09N110W. The ITCZ continues from 09N110W to 10.5N133W to
beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 99W and 108.5W, and 
from 06.5N to 18.5N between 109W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong gap winds are over and downstream the Gulf of
Tehuantepec per recent ASCAT scatterometer data, with seas of 5-7
ft. Elsewhere, a ridge extends from high pressure located N of 
the area to across the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a trough
over western Mexico is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds
in the central and southern Gulf of California, as well as near 
Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in long 
period mixed swells are noted across the remainder of the 
Mexican offshore waters, with slight to moderate seas in the Gulf
of California and nearshore SW Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds will 
prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri morning, then
moderate to fresh through Sat morning. Winds over Tehuantepec 
will strengthen again on Sat afternoon and night, possibly 
reaching gale-force Sun night through at least Mon night. Mainly
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail
elsewhere, locally fresh near Cabo Corrientes and in the Gulf of
California through the end of the week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong winds are over and downstream the Gulf 
of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 05N, except
moderate in the Gulf of Panama per earlier ASCAT data. Gentle to
locally moderate southerly winds prevail S of 05N, except 
locally fresh near the entrance to the Gulf of Guayaquil. Seas 
are mainly moderate in mixed SW and NW swell, with exception of 
slight seas nearshore from Colombia northward to Costa Rica, as 
well as near the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, moderate N winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Panama. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds will prevail N of the 
monsoon trough over the next several days, except pulsing to 
moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo, locally strong at 
times. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail S of monsoon trough.
Moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell are expected over the 
regional waters through the weekend and into early next week. 
Seas may build offshore Guatemala by early next week due to a 
possible Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates the waters N of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure
and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and monsoon trough 
is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to around 20N
and west of 110W per recent ASCAT scatterometer passes. Seas are
in the 5 to 7 ft range over these waters. Gentle to moderate 
winds, and seas of 4 to 7 ft, prevail elsewhere over the 
discussion waters, except near 30N140W where new NW swell is 
arriving and building seas to around 8-9 ft as confirmed by
recent altimeter data.

For the forecast, the new set of NW long period swell is 
forecast to spread SE of 30N140W today with seas to 8-9 ft over 
these waters before subsiding by the end of the week. The 
pressure gradient may tighten by the end of the weekend with 
trades just N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ freshening into 
early next week.
 
$$
Lewitsky