000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152141
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jun 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2120 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Dalila is centered near 18.2N 108.4W at 2100 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with 
gusts to 50 kt. Seas of 12 ft and greater extend outward to 120 
nm to the NE, 90 nm to the SE, 60 nm to the SW, and 75 nm across
the NW quadrants. Peak seas are estimated at 18 ft or 5.5 
meters. Dalila continues to weaken this afternoon as it is 
entraining drier more stable low to middle-level from the NW, and
moving into progressively cooler water temperatures. Convection 
has diminished considerably throughout the day, with widely 
scattered moderate convection currently displaced 120 to 310 nm 
to the southwest of the center. Dalila will continue to weaken as
it moves towards the west later tonight through Tue. Dalia is 
expected to become a 30 kt post tropical system tonight near 
18.3N 109.6W, then continue westward and slowly weaken, before 
dissipating W of 116W Tue night. Please refer to the latest HIGH 
SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
T.S. Dalila NHC Forecast Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave across the Yucatan Peninsula, Central America and
into the eastern Tropical Pacific along 88W-89W earlier today has
become sheared, NW to SE across this area, with the southern
portion becoming absorbed within the elongated cyclonic
circulation about the monsoon trough E of 95W. It is no longer
distinguishable and has been dropped from the 1800 UTC analysis.
An ill-defined 1009 mb surface low remains in the area along the
monsoon trough near 09.5N88.5W, accompanied by active convection
described below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to low pres 1009 mb near
09.5N88.5W to 13N104W to 10N121W. The ITCZ extends from 10N121W 
to beyond 09N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is N of 
03.4S and E of 84.5W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted from 03.5N to 14N between 85W and 96W, from 08N to 13N 
between 97W and 114W, and from 08N to 11.5N between 132W and 136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on 
Tropical Storm Dalila.

The expected weakening of Dalila is well underway this afternoon,
as it moves slowly W-NW and away from the coast of Mexico to the
southwest of Cabo Corrientes. Strong S-SE winds still persist
across the near shore waters from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes. 
Seas to 12 ft associated with Dalila have shifted to beyond 60 nm
of the coast there. However seas to 8 ft and greater associated
with Dalila spread from near the coast of Cabo San Lucas to Las
Tres Marias and along the Mexican coast to Oaxaca. Elsewhere, a 
broad and weak ridge extends from a 1026 mb high centered well NW
of the area near 34N140W to well offshore of Baja California 
near 22N118W. This pattern is supporting moderate to locally 
fresh NW winds across the offshore waters of Baja California 
where seas are 5 to 7 ft in S swell. Light to gentle winds are 
ongoing in the northern Gulf of California with seas less than 3 
ft. In the southern half of the Gulf winds are moderate from the 
S with seas of 3 to 6 ft in S swell. Gentle to locally moderate 
westerly winds are across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with 7 to 8 ft
in SW swell.

For the forecast, Dalila continues to weaken and will move more W
and away from the coast of SW Mexico tonight, reaching near 
18.3N 109.6W tonight as a 30 kt post-tropical system, and 
continue westward and slowly weaken through Mon, before
dissipating west of 116W Tue night. Cross- equatorial southerly 
swell will continue to impact the waters between Tehuantepec and
Baja California Sur through early MOn. Elsewhere, high pressure 
well northwest of the area will support generally moderate to 
locally fresh N-NW winds across the Baja California offshore 
waters through Tue, then weaken across Baja Sur through Thu 
night. NW to N swell will build into the Baja waters Mon evening 
through Thu night. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds will
prevail across the Gulf of California tonight through Tue.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Active showers and thunderstorms continue across interior
portions of Central America N of 10N, and extend westward across
much of the waters of Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua and
northern Cost Rico, and are associated with an elongated
monsoonal circulation that currently prevails between 75W and 93W.
An associated 1009 mb low southwest of Papagayo along 88.5W is 
producing fresh to locally strong easterly winds across the 
Papagayo region, and moderate S to SW winds over the Costa Rica 
offshore waters. Seas are 6-9 ft in S swell across this area. N
of 10N and 5-8 ft S of 10N. Elsewhere across the remainder 
Central America offshore waters N of 04N, winds are gentle, and 
seas are moderate, and still 5 to 8 ft,in strong cross- 
equatorial S swell. Winds S of 04N and between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands are moderate from the S and SE, with and seas 6
to 8 ft in S swell.

For the forecast, large S to SW swell dominating the regional 
waters will slowly subside through early next week. Tropical 
Storm Dalila is weakening and will turn more W tonight through 
Tue, moving away from the Mexican coast. Low pressure offshore 
NW Costa Rica is expected to drift W to W-NW through the middle 
of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
gradual development of the low, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the middle of this coming week while moving 
westward to west-northwestward and just offshore of the coasts 
of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico. Showers and 
thunderstorms are expected to remain active across the regional 
waters in association with this system. This system is being 
monitored for potential tropical development, and has a medium 
chance of formation through 48 hours, and a high chance through 
7 days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on 
Tropical Storm Dalila, located a few hundred nautical miles 
southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

Broad and weak ridging centered on a 1026 mb high near 34N140W  
dominates the waters north of 15N and W of 120W. This pattern is
supporting moderate to locally fresh NE winds north of 10N and 
west of 130W, with 5 to 6 ft seas in a mix of N and S swell.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail north of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough to 24N between 115W and 130W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft,
except to 8 ft and higher closer to Dalila. North of 24N,
moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail between 120W and 130W,
with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Southerly swell is slowly subsiding 
east of 115W, however seas there remain 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere 
south of the monsoon/ITCZ, winds and seas are mainly moderate. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will sink
slightly southward through Tue, then the ridge will reorganize
from the NW to basically reinforce the current pattern. A slight
increase in winds is expected N of 20N through Tue night, while
winds weaken to the W and SW of the approaching remnants of
Dalila during the next few days. A slight increase in seas is
expected across the northern waters E of 130W Mon night through
Thu as new N to NE swell moves into the regional waters.

$$
Stripling