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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 240906

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0905 UTC Sat Mar 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC. 


The ITCZ axis begins near 07N89W and continues to 02N100W to
04N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is within 90 nm of the ITCZ axis between 89W and 95W.



A ridge axis that extends from 30N125W to 14N100W will meander
over the area for the next several days. A batch of northwest 
swell of 7 to 9 ft is spreading SE offshore of northern Baja, 
and is expected to spread SE across all the waters west of the 
Baja Peninsula by Sun evening, with a strong northwest breeze 
setting up along the Pacific coast of northern Baja on Sat 
evening. The pressure gradient will further tighten throughout 
Sun, with fresh to locally strong flow forecast across the entire
area N of 21N, W of Baja on Mon and Tue, with seas to 12 ft 
building along 30N by late Mon.

Gulf of California: Light and variable winds are expected 
through the weekend with moderate to locally fresh northwest flow
forecast across the entire gulf waters late Mon. A dissipating cold
front will transition to a trough before passing through the far
northern gulf on Mon night followed by strong NW flow on Tue, as
low pressure crosses the SW United States. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico is 
weakening and retreating eastward, which will allow for strong 
winds currently over the Gulf of Tehuantepec to diminish under 20
kt by this afternoon. Seas to 9 ft will decrease below 8 ft 
through the day. Light winds will prevail thereafter over this 
region through the middle of the upcoming week, with seas of 4 
to 6 ft. 


Santa Maria Volcano in Guatemala at 14.75N 91.55W erupted on 
Thu, but ash is currently not visible over the Pacific waters. 
Hazy conditions and reduced visibilities are possible during any 
future eruptions, and conditions could deteriorate rapidly along 
the Pacific coast of Guatemala. 

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong to near gale force NE nocturnal winds
are expected this morning, then decreasing during the daylight
hours. Strong drainage winds will then pulse each night through 
the middle of the upcoming week. Seas will reach 8 to 9 ft each
night under these winds. 

Gulf of Panama: Strong northerly winds this morning will 
diminish after sunrise. Then, fresh northerly winds are expected 
to develop each night the next several nights.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate flow will prevail N of 07N while 
light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 07N with seas of 4 to
6 ft.


High pressure north of the region will produce a narrow swath of
strong trades across from roughly 19N to 25N west of 130W 
through the weekend with seas of 9 to 11 ft, while northwest 
swell to 9 ft propagates SE elsewhere across the waters north of
08N west of 110W through early next week. 

An intense low pressure system is expected to develop north of 
the Hawaiian Islands tonight, then drift northward through Tue. 
In the meantime, high pressure centered near 35N145W this weekend
will drift east and intensify early next week. This pattern will
support strong trades and large swell across the waters N of 
roughly 10N and west of 120W beginning on Mon night.