000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080407
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jun 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Pacific Gale Warnings: 

Thunderstorm activity continues to become more organized around 
a 1004 mb low pressure (Invest EP92) centered around 150 nm SSW 
of Acapulco, Mexico near 15N101W. Although it is unclear whether 
the system has a well-defined circulation at the surface, further
development is anticipated, and a tropical depression or 
tropical storm will likely form overnight or on Sunday. The 
system is forecast to move west- northwestward at around 10 to 15
kt tonight, then continue in that general direction through 
early next week, possibly reaching Socorro Island by late Tue. 
Locally heavy rains are possible along portions of the 
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days, and 
interests there should monitor the progress of this system. Gale 
force winds and rough to very rough seas are likely ongoing 
within 90 nm of the coast of Mexico between Acapulco and Cabo 
Corrientes. For additional information, including gale warnings, 
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml.
This system has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone 
during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
 
Another low pressure system (Invest EP91) is located about 75 nm
north of Clipperton Island near 11.5N109W. This is a fairly broad
circulation currently, with an estimated pressure of 1006 mb. 

520 
nm southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico near 10N109W 
with a a pressure of 1007 mb. satellite imagery shows 
disorganized scattered moderate to isolated strong convection 
from 07N to 13N between 107W and 112W. Seas to 8 ft are within 
about 150 nm to the southwest of the low pressure as indicated by
the most recent altimeter satellite data that sampled that part 
of the area. Gradual development of this system is still 
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this 
weekend or early next week while it moves slowly northward to 
northwestward. This system has a high chance of becoming a 
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the 
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for 
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 1004 mb low
pressure near 15N101W to 1006 mb low pressure near 11.5N109W to
08N115W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection from 06N to 09N
between 85W and 90W, from 09N to 11N between 95W and 105W, and
from 14N to 16N between 105W and 110W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on two
areas of low pressure with potential for tropical cyclone 
development.

A weak pressure pattern in place is allowing for generally 
gentle to moderate northwest to north winds offshore Baja 
California, with occasional fresh winds between Punta Eugenia
and Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere off 
southern Mexico and in the Gulf of California. Combined seas are 
4 to 6 ft off Baja California primarily in northwest swell, and 
3 to 5 ft primarily in long-period southwest swell off southern 
Mexico, with the exception of the strong winds related to Invest 
EP92 as described above under Special Features. Seas of 3 ft are 
over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the main issue will be the potential for a
tropical depression or tropical storm to form off southern 
Mexico described in the Special Features section. Expect fresh to
strong winds with rough seas over the offshore waters off 
Guerrero and Michoacan, with the range of these seas of 8 to 12 
ft late this afternoon and into this evening, building to 10 to 
15 ft tonight.

These adverse marine conditions will expand westward across the 
offshore waters toward Cabo Corrientes through early next week 
as low pressure farther to the south off the coast possibly 
becomes a tropical depression. Mariners should continue to 
monitor the latest statements from the National Hurricane Center 
on the possible tropical cyclone development, and plan their
routes accordingly to avoid the adverse marine conditions.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient remains over the area resulting
generally in gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the 
monsoon trough, and light to gentle winds to the north of it. 
Cross-equatorial southwest swell is producing moderate seas 
across the offshore forecast waters.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong gap winds across the 
Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua will diminish Mon.
Mainly gentle to moderate breezes will persist elsewhere. 
Moderate seas in cross equatorial swell will subside early next 
week. Abundant deep tropical moisture will persist across the 
region maintaining a high likelihood of additional showers and 
thunderstorms for the next few days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

Fresh to strong winds and rough seas with a component of SW swell are
active north of 05N between 100W and 115W, largely associated
with Invest 91E. Elsewhere weak ridging persists north of 25N, 
supporting gentle to moderate winds west of 120W. Seas to 8 ft
persist from 05N to 15N west of 135W in a combination of moderate
tradewind-induced waves and longer period SW swell. Moderate seas
are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, little change is expected through the middle of
week outside of the area near Invest 91 as described in the 
Special Features section. Looking ahead, SW winds will increase 
into the monsoon trough east of 110W later in the week, with 
building seas. This pattern is associated with broad low 
pressure that may develop off Central America and the far eastern
Pacific. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some 
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression 
could form late next week or next weekend. 

$$
Christensen