146 
AXPZ20 KNHC 132102
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jun 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Dalila is centered near 14.8N 102.4W at 2100 UTC,
moving north-northwest at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with 
gusts to 45 kt. Seas of 12 ft and greater extend outward to 270
nm to the northeast, and near the Mexican coast, and up to 480 nm
across the southeast quadrant. Peak seas are estimated at 15 ft.  
Clusters of scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection 
extend from 10N to 18N, and along the Mexican coast, between 94W
and 107W. A northwest motion is expected tonight through Sat 
with gradual strengthening, reaching near 16.8N 105.1W midday Sat
as a 55 kt tropical storm. A more W-NW motion is then expected
through Sun, before turning more westerly and weakening through
Sun night, as it approaches the Revillagigedo Islands, moves 
over cooler waters, and becomes post-tropical overnight Sun. On 
the forecast track, Dalila is expected to move parallel to, but 
offshore of, the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight through 
early Sun. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued 
by the National Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
T.S. Dalila NHC Forecast Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N75W to 11N88W to 14.5N99W,
then resumes west of T.S. Dalila near 13N105W to 12.5N111W to
08.5N129W. The ITCZ extends from 08.5N129W to beyond 07N140W. 
Aside from the convection associated with T.S. Dalila, scattered
to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 
09N E of 85W, from 05N to 12N between 85W and 94W, and from 09N 
to 12.5N between 108W and 117W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 08N to 09.5N between 120W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on 
Tropical Storm Dalila, located a few hundred miles southwest of 
Acapulco, Mexico.

Broad cyclonic flow associated with Dalila dominates the waters 
between 95W and 106W. To the NW, the 1011 mb remnant low of 
Cosme remains stationary to the southwest of Socorro Island near
16.5N114W. A second 1011 mb low center is between this low and 
Dalila is near 16N108W and moving southeastward toward Dalila.  
No convection is present with either of these two lows. 
Elsewhere, a broad and weak ridge extends from a 1030 mb high 
centered well NW of the area near 42N141W to just northwest of 
the remnants of Cosme. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail 
across the near and offshore waters of Baja California, with seas
of 4 to 6 ft in NW swell. Moderate southerly winds prevail 
across much of south and central portions of the Gulf of 
California, where seas are 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, T.S. Dalila will move NW tonight and Sat, 
gradually strengthening to 55 kt, and reach near 16.8N 105.1W
midday Sat, then veer more W-NW and reach near 18.4N 108.9W
midday Sun, then begin to turn more westerly and weaken, as it
moves towards the Revillagigedo Islands and cooler waters. Dalila
is expected to become a 35 kt post-tropical system near
18.5N 110.9W Sun night, then continue westward and weaken
further through Tue. Moderate-sized cross-equatorial southerly 
swell will mix with seas generated from Dalila to impact the 
waters between Tehuantepec and Cabo Corrientes through Sun. 
Elsewhere, high pressure well northwest of the area will support
generally moderate to locally fresh N-NW winds across the Baja 
California offshore waters through Mon. NW to N swell will build
into the Baja waters Sun through Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Heavy showers and tstms prevail across much of the area waters E
of 94W, with gusty winds and rough seas likely ongoing over the 
Costa Rica near and offshore waters, and south of the Gulf of
Panama into the coastal waters of Colombia. Winds elsewhere from
02N to 10N are moderate to fresh from the S and SW with higher 
winds likely in areas of strong convection. Seas across the area 
waters are 6 to 10 ft in cross-equatorial SW swell, with highest seas
to 10 to 11 ft between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador.

For the forecast, large SW swell will persist through most of 
the weekend, then subside early next week. Tropical Storm Dalila located
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico near 14.8N 102.4W will move NW 
through Sat then turn more W-NW and intensify through the 
weekend. SW swell from this system will also impact the waters 
of El Salvador and Guatemala today through Sat. Showers and 
thunderstorms are expected to remain active across the area 
waters through tonight then begin to diminish slightly over the 
weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on 
Tropical Storm Dalila, located a few hundred nautical miles 
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.

Broad and weak ridging dominates the waters north of 13N, 
centered on a 1030 mb high near 42N141W. This pattern is 
supporting mostly moderate N to NE winds north of 20N and west 
of 120W, with 5 to 7 ft seas in a mix of N and S swell. Southerly
swell of 8 to 10 ft has merged with the seas being generated by 
T.S Dalila, and is dominating the waters south of 12N between 
90W and 120W, with seas as high as 13 ft. Elsewhere moderate to 
fresh SW winds persist south of the monsoon trough between 95W 
and 120W. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in S swell elsewhere west of 120W.

In the forecast, little change is expected west of 120W except
for increased NW swell north of 28N and east of 130W Sat through
Mon. Conditions east of 120W and associated with T.S. Dalila are
described in the Special Features section above, and will be 
dominated by large SW swell through Sat night, and mixed E to SE
swell generated by Dalila. Dalila is forecast to die off near 
18.5N 115.4W by Tue afternoon.

$$
Stripling