909 
AXPZ20 KNHC 102119
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat May 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A late season gap wind event 
is ongoing across the Tehuantepec region as a ridge continues to  
build across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in
Mexico, and over the western Gulf of America. Winds are currently
reaching minimal gale force, and these conditions are expected 
to last through Mon morning. Building seas to around 13 ft are 
expected with this event tonight into Sun, with the plume of seas
in excess of 8 ft reaching as far west as 100W on Sun. The edge
of an 1634Z ASCAT pass captured N winds of 20 to 30 kt N of 14N 
between 95W and 96W. This indicates peak winds are likely to 35 
kt farther east in the Tehuantepec region.

Climatologically, the first gale-force event of the season 
occurs in mid-October, with the final gale-force event occurring 
in late March or early April. Occasionally, gale-force events 
may occur as early as September, and as late as May. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1007 mb low pressure located 
over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 08N101W. The ITCZ continues
from 08N101W to 07N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection can be found from 05N to 09N between 90W and 97W, 
from 05N to 07N between 110W and 115W, and from 06N to 10N W of 
120W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1032 mb located N of Hawaiian Islands has a
ridge extending SE across the offshore waters of Baja California.
Under the influence of this system, recent scatterometer data 
indicate gentle to moderate NW winds W of the Baja California
peninsula. Elsewhere, across the Mexican offshore waters, including
the Gulf of California, light and variable winds prevail. Seas 
are generally 3 to 5 ft, except for 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of 
California. 

For the forecast, aside from the gale-force gap wind event in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec described in the Special Features section, a 
ridge will continue to dominate the offshore waters of Baja 
California the remainder of the weekend supporting gentle to 
moderate NW winds. By Mon, the high pressure will move eastward
while strengthening. This should enhance the NW winds to fresh 
conditions west of the Baja California peninsula. In the Gulf of
California gentle to moderate southerly winds and slight seas are
expected. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, primarily 
in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are noted in Lake Nicaragua and
offshore Nicaragua. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are observed
downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo to about 87W. Light and variable
winds are seen elsewhere across the Central America and Colombia
offshore waters. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are observed
per scatterometer data between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands.
Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft in SW swell across the entire region.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected 
in the Papagayo region most of the forecast period, increasing to
fresh to strong speeds at night from Sun night through Tue night. 
Elsewhere mainly light to gentle winds are expected through 
early next week, except between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands
where gentle to moderate southerly winds will persist. Seas
generated in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across the
western offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador on Sun. 
Slight to moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail 
elsewhere over the next several days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A ridge extends from of 1032 mb located N of Hawaiian Islands 
and covers the waters north of the ITCZ and west of 110W. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is forcing moderate to fresh NE trades with
seas 7 to 9 ft in mixed NE wind waves and NW swell from 08N to 
12N west of 135W based on altimeter data. Elsewhere, winds are 
gentle to moderate and seas are 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate most of the
waters north of the ITCZ and west of 110W through early next 
week, supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the trade
wind zone with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range. 

$$
GR