607 
AXPZ20 KNHC 102116
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jun 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Barbara is centered near 20.9N 108.1W at 10/2100
UTC, moving north at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt with peak seas near 13 ft. Isolated moderate convection is 
occurring within 90 NM in the SW semicircle of the tropical 
storm. The system is expected to continue with this same general 
motion through tonight. Continued weakening is forecast, and 
Barbara is expected to become a remnant low tonight and dissipate
on Wednesday. Swells generated by Barbara will affect portions 
of the coast of southwestern and west- central Mexico, as well as
the southernmost portions of Baja California Sur through today. 
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip 
current conditions. Please consult products from your local 
weather office.

Tropical Storm Cosme is centered near 15.8N 115.1W at 10/2100
UTC, moving north-northwest at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt with seas to 17 ft. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring within 90 NM in the W semicircle of the tropical 
storm. A turn toward the north and northeast with an increase in 
forward speed is expected through Wednesday, followed by a turn 
back to the north-northwest on Thursday. Weakening is forecast, 
and Cosme is expected to degenerate into a remnant low on 
Wednesday. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate by late 
Thursday or Friday.
 
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Barbara and Cosme NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories 
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 14N103W, and from 
12N118W to 06N136W. The ITCZ extends from 06N136W to beyond 
06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted north of 05N and east of 83W and from 07N-13N between 
98W-105W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 
03N-07N between 131W-138W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Barbara and Tropical Tropical Storm Cosme.

Weak ridging extends from a 1027 mb high centered at 37N153W to 
23N11W. Away from the tropical storms, winds over the Pacific are
gentle to moderate with seas 6-7 ft. Surface troughing extends 
along the Baja California peninsula, helping to force moderate SE
winds over the Gulf of California with seas 4-6 ft over the S 
Gulf and 2-4 ft over the N Gulf.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Barbara is near 20.9N 108.1W at
2 PM PDT, and is moving north at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 
are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure 
is 1004 mb. Barbara will weaken to a remnant low near 21.7N 
107.9W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed afternoon. Tropical Storm 
Cosme is near 15.8N 115.1W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving north-
northwest at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts 
to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Cosme will
move to 16.2N 114.8W Wed morning, weaken to a remnant low near 
17.1N 114.1W Wed afternoon, 18.2N 113.8W Thu morning, 19.1N 
114.1W Thu afternoon, and dissipate Fri morning. A broad area of 
low pressure located several hundred miles south of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm 
activity. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual 
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely 
to form late this week or over the weekend while moving generally
west-northwestward just offshore the southwestern coast of 
Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh E winds are occurring over the Gulf of Papagayo
region. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate over forecast
waters. Seas are 5-7 ft in S swell. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is noted north of 05N and east of 83W
over Panamanian waters.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE gap winds are 
expected over the Gulf of Papagayo region through tomorrow. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will persist south of the 
monsoon trough, while light to gentle winds are expected to the 
north of it. From Thu into Fri night, an enhanced monsoon trough 
should cause increasing SW winds as well as showers and 
thunderstorms over the Central American forecast waters. Looking 
ahead, quiescent conditions are likely for the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Barbara and Tropical Tropical Storm Cosme.

Weak ridging extends from a 1027 mb high centered at 37N153W to 
23N11W. The small pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 
pressure over the ITCZ and monsoon trough is forcing only 
moderate to fresh trades north of around 10N this afternoon. 
South of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, winds are SE to SW moderate to
fresh. Seas are 6-8 ft in mixed swell over forecast waters. A 
broad 1011 mb low near 09N96W several hundred miles south of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized shower and 
thunderstorm activity.

In the forecast, little change in winds and seas west of 120W 
are expected over the next several days. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of the broad low, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the
weekend while moving generally west-northwestward just offshore 
the southwestern coast of Mexico. Winds south of the monsoon 
trough east of 105W should reach fresh to strong by late Thu. 
Likewise, waters east of 120W may reach up to 10 ft in S to SW 
swell.

$$
Landsea