000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131433
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue May 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 08N94W to 10N120W. The
ITCZ continues from 10N110W to beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate
to isolated strong convection is active from 04N to 08N east of 
87W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
from 03N to 10N between 93W and 105W, and from 04N to 10N between
120W and 135W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends across Baja California Norte to 
Guadalupe Island. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, 
are found off Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate winds are
south of Cabo San Lucas as well as south of Southern Mexico.
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the open waters off
Mexico. Elsewhere over the open waters, seas are in the 4-6 ft
range. Fresh to locally strong winds are in the northern Gulf of
California, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere in the Gulf.
Seas are in the 3-4 ft range in the northern Gulf of California,
and 2-3 ft in the remainder of the Gulf.  

For the forecast, the front will slow down and weaken as it 
moves into the northern Gulf of California later today, before 
dissipating tonight into Wed. Strong winds may briefly pulse 
across the northern Gulf of California today ahead of and 
following the front. High pressure building in the wake of the 
front will freshen winds west of the Baja California peninsula 
through mid week, with large NW swell into Fri. Moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will 
prevail elsewhere. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft are over and downstream
the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-6
ft are between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Gentle winds,
and seas of 4-5 ft, prevail elsewhere.  

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected 
in the Papagayo region through Fri, pulsing to fresh to strong at
night into mid week. Gentle to moderate winds will persist 
elsewhere. Expect moderate to rough seas in long period SW swell 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Wed and Thu. Slight to 
moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A ridge prevails the waters north of 20N and west of 110W. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate trade winds N of the
ITCZ and west of 120W. Seas over these waters are in the 6 to 7 
ft range. Gentle to locally moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft
are noted elsewhere in a mix of swell. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
over the waters N of 20N, and low pressure in the vicinity of the
ITCZ will support moderate to fresh NE winds north of the ITCZ 
and west of 120W through mid week. Seas in the 8 to 9 ft range in
NW swell will move into the waters north of 25N and west of 120W
through mid week, and combine with seas from trade winds from 
10N to 20N west of 130W through the latter part of the week.

$$
AL