000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121532
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Jun 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1440 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

South of Southern Mexico (Invest EP93): A large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms extending several hundred miles south 
through southwest of Acapulco, Mexico is associated with a broad 
area of low pressure roughly centered near 11.5N99.5W. Associated
winds are currently are 20 to 25 kt, with seas 8 to 9 ft to the 
south of the low pressure from 04N to 09N between 93W and 103W. 
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection associated 
with this broad circulation extends from 06.5N northward to 
portions of the Mexican coast between 93W and 106W. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
system, and a tropical depression is expected to form late this 
week or this weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward 
just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. This system has a
high chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 7 
days. Regardless of development, expect increasing winds and seas
with this feature off southern Mexico between Puerto Angel and 
Cabo Corrientes this afternoon through Sat night. Please refer to
the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov 
for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N73W to 11.5N84W to low 
pressure 1009 mb near 11.5N99.5W to 13.5N107W, then resumes 
southwest of the remnant low of Cosme near 13.5N114.5W to 
10N133W. The ITCZ extends from 10N133W to beyond 08.5N140W. 
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted 
from 01.5N northward to the E of 83.5W, from 04N to 11N between 
83.5W and 93W, and from 06.5N northward between 93W and 106W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08.5N to 10N between
119W and 129W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on the
broad area of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles 
south of Acapulco, Mexico.

The remnant low of Cosme is located just southwest of Socorro  
Island near 17.5N111W at 1009 mb, and is moving slowly toward the
east. No significant convection is present. Overnight scatterometer
satellite data showed peak winds of 17 kt on the south and west
sides of the low pressure. Seas are estimated to still be 6 to 7
ft and slowly subsiding. Elsewhere, a broad and weak ridge extends
from a 1029 mb high centered well NW of the area near 37N148W to
just north of the Revillagigedo Islands along 20N. Moderate to
locally fresh NW winds continue off Baja California Norte, with 
5 to 7 ft seas in NW swell. Mostly gentle northerly are ongoing 
elsewhere with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed NW and SW swell, except 
for 1 to 3 ft seas in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, the remnant low of Cosme will continue to drift
eastward and spin down, with associated winds and seas 
diminishing and subsiding through Fri. Farther south, a broad 
area of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles south
of Acapulco has the potential for tropical cyclone formation 
late this week or this weekend while it moves generally west- 
northwestward just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. 
Regardless of development, expect increasing winds and seas with 
this feature off southern Mexico between Puerto Angel and Cabo 
Corrientes this afternoon through Sat night. Moderate cross- 
equatorial southerly swell will mix with seas generated from this
system to impact the waters between Tehuantepec and Cabo
Corrientes tonight through Sat night. Looking ahead, large NW 
swell will move into the area near Guadalupe Island off Baja 
California Norte Sun and Mon.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection prevails
across much of the area waters E of 93W this morning. Moderate to
fresh SW to W monsoonal winds prevail south of 10N, where seas
are 5 to 8 ft in new cross-equatorial SW swell. Winds are mainly
gentle to moderate E to SE across the offshore waters N of 10N,
where seas are 5-6 ft. 

For the forecast, large SW swell will build across the regional
waters throughout the day, and persist through most of the 
weekend, then subside early next week. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected to remain active across the area waters through Fri
night then begin to diminish.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on a
broad area of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles 
south of Acapulco, Mexico near 11.5N99.5W.

Broad and weak ridging dominates the waters north of 15N,
centered on a 1029 mb high near 37N148W. This pattern is 
supporting mostly gentle to moderate N to NE winds north of 10N
aND west of 120W, with 4 to 7 ft seas in a mix of NW and S 
swell. New S swell of 8 to 10 ft is reaching as far north as the
Equator between 105W and 120W. Elsewhere fresh SW winds persist 
south of the monsoon trough between 90W and 110W, into the area 
of broad low pressure described in the Special Features section 
(EP93). Seas are reaching 8 ft as far north as 09N95W, to the 
south of the broad low. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in new SW swell 
elsewhere east of 120W.

In the forecast, little change is expected west of 120W except
for increased NW swell north of 28N and east of 130W Sat through
Mon. Conditions east of 120W are described in the Special
Features section above, and will be dominated by building SW
swell today through Sat night.

$$
Stripling