232 
AXPZ20 KNHC 082215 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jun 08 2025

Corrected to include a ship observation from near the coast of
Mexico 

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Barbara is centered near 16.0N 104.1W, or 
about 180 nm southwest of Zihuatanejo Mexico at 2 PM PDT, and is
moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 
kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 996 
mb. satellite imagery shows that Barbara continues to become 
better organized. Numerous banding features have become evident 
around the system as well as very deep convection of numerous 
moderate to strong intensity being noted within these bands and 
over the center, roughly from 13N to 17N between 101W and 103W 
and from 13N to 18N between 103W and 107W. Peak seas are to 
around 22 ft. A ship reported 35 kt southeast winds near 17N102W 
during the afternoon. Barbara is forecast to maintain its 
current motion for the next couple of days, with a turn toward 
the west at a slower forward speed is anticipated on Tue. 
Strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Barbara 
is forecast to become a hurricane overnight near 16.7N 105.3W. 
Outer bands of Barbara may bring total rainfall amounts of 2 to 
4 inches to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, 
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco through Monday. This rainfall may 
lead to localized areas of flooding and mudslides. Swells 
generated by Barbara will affect portions of the coast of 
southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather 
office.
 
Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Cosme is centered near 13.3N
111.0W, or about 600 nm south of the southern tip of Baja
California at 08/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated 
minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed 
is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. satellite imagery shows that the 
system is becoming better organized as banding features coiling 
around a center are becoming more evident with time. At the same
time, very deep convection of the numerous strong type intensity
has blossomed over and near the center, roughly from 12N to 14N 
between 110W and 112W, and within 30 nm of a line from 13N112W to
14N112.5W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is 
elsewhere from 11N to 15N between 111W and 114W. Peak seas are 
to near 15 ft. Cosme is forecast to maintain its present motion 
for the next day or two. A slow down and turn to the northeast 
is forecast to occur by mid-week. Additional strengthening is 
expected, and Cosme is forecast to be near hurricane strength on 
Mon.
 
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Barbara and Cosme NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories 
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from near NW Colombia to 
across northern Costa Rica and to 10N85W to 12N95W and to 
14N101W. It resumes to the southwest of Tropical Storm Cosme at
11N111W to 10N118W and to 06N125W, where it transitions to the 
ITCZ and to 06N130W and to 07N140W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the trough 
between 93W-95W, and within 180 nm north of the trough between 
138W-140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north 
of the ITCZ between 136W-140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Barbara and on recently upgraded Tropical 
Tropical Storm Cosme.

The latest surface analysis reveals a that a weak pressure 
pattern remains present across the regional waters allowing for 
gentle to moderate northwest to north winds offshore Baja 
California, with occasional fresh winds between Punta Eugenia and
Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere off 
southern Mexico and in the Gulf of California. Combined seas are 
4 to 6 ft off Baja California primarily in northwest swell, and 5
to 6 ft primarily in long-period southwest swell off southern 
Mexico, with the exception of the strong winds related to 
Tropical Storm Barbara as described above under Special Features.
Seas of 3 ft are over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, outside of Tropical Storm Barbara and on
recently upgraded Tropical Storm Cosme, expect fresh to strong 
winds with rough seas over the offshore waters off Michoacan, 
with the range of these seas at 9 to 14 ft, building to 19 to 27
ft tonight.

These adverse marine conditions will expand westward across the 
offshore waters toward Cabo Corrientes through early in the
week as the systems approach the coast. Mariners should continue
to monitor the latest statements from the National Hurricane 
Center, and plan their routes accordingly to avoid the adverse 
marine conditions.

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop
late next week south of southern Mexico. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this 
system, and a tropical depression could form late this week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient remains over the area resulting
generally in gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the 
monsoon trough, and light to gentle winds to the north of it. 
Cross-equatorial southwest swell is producing moderate seas 
across the offshore forecast waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds across the Gulf of 
Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua will diminish Mon. Mainly 
gentle to moderate breezes will persist elsewhere. Moderate seas 
in cross equatorial swell will subside early next week. Abundant 
deep tropical moisture will persist across the region 
maintaining a high chances of additional showers and 
thunderstorms well into the upcoming week as a broad low 
pressure gyre forms west of Central America. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A weak trough extends from near 30N129W to 27N134W. No significant
convection is occurring with this feature. This feature has
helped to weaken the high pressure present over the area. A weak
trough is near 139W from 05N to 16N. Fresh northeast winds and 
of 8 ft are near the trough from about 08N to 16N between 134W 
and 140W. A recent scatterometer data pass highlighted these 
winds. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds inflowing into 
Cosme are from 02N to 10N between 107W and 121W. Seas of 8 ft in 
south to southwest swell are present with these winds. The weak 
high pressure over the area is allowing for generally gentle 
moderate northeast to east winds outside the winds along those of
higher speeds that are around the periphery of Cosme as noted in
the latest scatterometer data passes. An area of cross-
equatorial swell producing seas of 8 ft as noted by a recent 
altimeter data pass is south 0f 01S between 94W and 118W.

For the forecast, little change is expected through the middle of
week outside of the area near Tropical Storm Cosme as described 
in the Special Features section. The cross-equatorial swell
is forecast to decay by early Tue.
 
Looking ahead, southwest winds will increase into the monsoon 
trough east of 110W later in the week, with building seas. This 
pattern is associated with a broad low pressure that is forecast 
to develop late next week over the far eastern Pacific south of 
southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
some gradual development of this system, and a tropical 
depression could form late this week.

$$
Aguirre