000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072034
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed May 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11.5N73W to 11N88W to 07N129W to
09N110W to 08N120W to 05.5N135W, where it transitions to the 
ITCZ continuing on to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 09N east of 94W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N
between 97W and 123W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure of 1018 mb is centered near 28N121W and
extends a broad ridge southeastward near 15N106W. A broad 
surface trough is across southern California, Baja Norte, and the
northern Gulf of California. The modest pressure gradient 
between these two features is producing moderate NW winds along 
and just offshore the Baja Peninsula waters southward beyond Cabo
San Lucas to Cabo Corrientes to near Manzanillo. Seas across 
these waters are 5 to 7 ft in subsiding NW swell. Farther 
offshore of Cabo Corrientes to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands, 
seas are near 8 ft. Across the Gulf of California, gentle to 
moderate cyclonic winds are over the northern Gulf, while light 
and variable wind prevail across the remaining Gulf waters. Seas 
in the Gulf are 3 ft or less except for higher seas of 3 to 5 ft 
in S swell are in the entrance. Elsewhere across the remaining 
Mexican waters to Tehuantepec, winds are light to gentle along 
with seas of 5 to 6 ft in merging NW and SW swell.

For the forecast, a broad and weak ridge extending southeastward
to offshore of southwestern Mexico will change little through 
Thu before new high pressure offshore of California builds 
modestly across the Baja California waters Thu night through the 
upcoming weekend. NW swell moving through the offshore waters 
will continue to subside through tonight. Looking ahead, strong 
northerly gap winds will return to Tehuantepec Sat morning, 
leading to a late season northerly gale event Sat night and again
Sun night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Monsoonal winds continue to initiate scattered showers and 
thunderstorms across the area waters south of 09N and east of 94W
this afternoon. Light and variable winds generally prevail north
of the monsoon trough near 11N. Gentle to moderate E are 
occurring across the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate SW to S 
winds prevail across most of the waters south of the trough. Seas
of 5 to 6 ft in SW swell are over the Central American offshore 
waters, except for higher seas of 7 to 8 ft in S to SW swell 
near the Galapagos Islands and adjacent waters south of the
Equator.

For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate breezes will 
persist across the waters off Central America, Colombia and 
Ecuador through Thu night before winds diminishing slightly S of
10N through Mon. Moderate SW swell is entering the regional 
waters today and will build across the area waters through Thu. 
Fresh easterly gap winds will return to the Papagayo region over 
the weekend becoming strong Mon night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A broad high pressure ridge continues over the regional waters W
of 106W, centered on a weak 1018 mb high near 28N121W. A cold
front has begun to stall just north of the local northwestern
waters. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds prevail west of 
about 132W and north of 06N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft in N swell.
Moderate to fresh NE trade winds are occurring from 09N to 18N 
between 115W and 132W. Seas in this zone are 6 to 8 ft in NW to N
swell. Elsewhere north of 10N and W of 110W winds are moderate 
or lighter with seas of 6 to 8 ft in subsiding NW to N swell. 
Scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms remain active from 06N
to 11N between 97W and 123W. Mainly moderate southerly winds 
prevail south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough where seas are 5 to
7 ft. 

For the forecast, the weakening high pressure ridge across the 
region W of 110W will generally persist through Thu. A slow
moving weak cold front will approach 30N140W late Fri night or 
early Sat. High pressure building behind it will overtake the 
weakening front through Sun night. A tightening pressure gradient
spreading across the western and northwestern waters will act to
expand the areal coverage of the fresh trade winds northward to 
near 26N by Sun morning. Seas with these trades are expected to 
remain in the 6 to 8 ft range.

$$
Stripling