000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270356
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Dec 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Northern Waters Significant Swell: Large northwest swell 
generated by a storm system that is well north of the area 
is bringing very rough seas to waters north of 26N and west
of about 124W, with seas peaking to around 14 ft (4.5 m) north 
of 28N and between 126W AND 137W. Wave period with these seas
is of 11-13 sec. This swell will continue to propagate into the 
regional waters through Sat, with rough seas reaching as far 
south as 13N, and as far east as 118W. The swell will slowly 
subside through late Sun south of 28N. Rough seas of 8 to 12 ft 
are likely to prevail into the weekend across the offshore waters
of Baja California from 17N to 26N.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia to 08N79W to
08N90W to 07N102W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 09N117W
to 09N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 125W-132W, and within 
30 nm south of the ITCZ between 137W-140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Latest scatterometer satellite data indicates fresh to strong
north winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region due to the gradient 
associated to a subtropical ridge north of the area. Seas over
these waters are in 5 to 7 ft. Farther west, a large area of 
northwest swell is generating seas of 7 to 11 ft north of Punta 
Eugenia, especially west of Guadalupe Island. Meanwhile, moderate
to fresh northwest winds and moderate seas are over the central 
and southern Gulf of California and off Baja California Sur. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, the gradient associated to high pressure over 
the Gulf of America will continue to induce fresh to strong 
northerly gap winds and moderate to locally rough seas in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec region through Sat morning, then diminish in 
the early afternoon. Gale conditions may be possible in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec region starting late Mon night. Northwest swell 
propagating through the waters north of Punta Eugenia will be 
spreading rough seas southward across the offshore waters of the 
Baja California peninsula through the weekend. High pressure will
begin to build across the Baja waters through the weekend 
bringing a return to more typical northerly winds. Fresh to 
locally strong northwest winds are likely to develop in the Gulf 
of California Sun into Tue as high pressure strengthens across 
the region. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the Caribbean continues to support
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds in the Gulf of Papagayo, 
extending downstream to 90W. Seas over these waters are 4 to 6 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the area and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough 
will continue to support pulsing fresh to locally strong 
northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region 
through the period. Mostly gentle to moderate north winds are 
expected in the Gulf of Panama during the period. Gentle or 
lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere 
through the period. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on significant
swell impacting much of the northern waters.

A weak pressure gradient dominates the rest of the eastern
tropical Pacific outside of the swell region described in the
Special Features section. A cold front extends from near 30N122W
to 24N139W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are 
found ahead of the front. Moderate to fresh northeast to east 
trade winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft in northwest to north are 
north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 130W. Moderate to occasionally
fresh southeast winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are south of the 
ITCZ and west of about 130W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, as low pressure north of the area weakens
inland California this will for high pressure to begin to build 
into the regional waters from the NW. Global models suggest that
a surface trough or broad low pressure will develop across the 
waters south of about 22N between 120W and 128W Sun into early 
next week. This will combine with high pressure building into the
region resulting in a rather broad zone of increasing winds 
reaching to strong speeds roughly from 16N to 26N and west of the
Revillagigedo Islands, accompanied by scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms. Seas may reach 14 ft with these winds as 
long-period north swell gradually decays across the area. 
Conditions will improve by midweek.

$$
Aguirre