948 
AXPZ20 KNHC 281531
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jul 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western East Pacific Low: Scattered moderate convection 
associated with low pressure (EP98) near 11N132W has become a bit
more organized overnight. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas 
are in the vicinity of this low. Additional development of this 
low is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the 
next day or two as it moves W at around 10 kt. There is a medium 
chance of development of this system within the next 48 hours.

Tropical Wave South of SW Mexico: Scattered moderate convection
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a tropical
wave with an axis along 93W. This wave is moving WNW at around 
15 kt. Environmental conditions are expected to be conductive for
gradual tropical development of a low pressure from this 
tropical wave, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
during the middle to latter part of this week. There is a medium 
chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours and a high 
chance over the next 7 days. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed near 119W from 03N to 19N, moving 
westward around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N 
to 14N between 116W to 122W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N82W to 13N115W to beyond 
11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 15N 
between 91W and 114W, and from 07N to 14N and W of 135W.
Scattered moderate convection has also developed from 04N to 07N
E of 85W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface troughing extends through the Gulf of California, and 
high pressure prevails over the Baja California waters. The 
pressure gradient between these features is leading to moderate 
to fresh NW winds offshore of Baja California north of Cabo San 
Lazaro. Moderate seas are also present in this region. 
Elsewhere, fresh to strong N gap winds and moderate seas are 
occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, as a tightening pressure 
gradient develops between troughing over the Yucatan Peninsula 
and high pressure over east- central Mexico. Moderate or weaker 
winds prevail over the remainder of the Mexico offshore waters. 
Moderate seas in mixed S and NW swell are noted offshore of 
southern Mexico, with slight seas in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas
are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through midweek as high 
pressure builds over eastern Mexico and the Gulf of America. 
Strong NE to E winds and rough seas will extend beyond the 
Tehuantepec region by early Tue as a low pres develops and 
strengthens to the south. Elsewhere, fresh to strong NW winds are
expected each afternoon and night offshore of Baja California 
through midweek as high pressure builds to the west. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh E winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo and across the El 
Salvador and Guatemala waters as low pressure prevails over 
northern Colombia and a tropical wave moves westward through 
Central America. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate
S to SW winds are occurring. Moderate seas prevail over the 
Central and South American waters.

For the forecast, fresh E gap winds and moderate seas will occur
in the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon morning as low pressure 
prevails over northern Colombia. Fresh E winds will extend 
through the waters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala through 
late Mon as an area of low pressure develops and strengthens to 
the southwest. Winds in this region will diminish by midweek. 
Looking ahead, pulsing fresh to strong winds look to redevelop in
the Gulf of Papagayo late this week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for information on
two areas of possible tropical development this week. 

Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds prevail north of the 
monsoon trough to 25N as ridging prevails to the north. Fresh 
winds and moderate seas are noted near a tropical wave analyzed 
near 119W. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient in the northern 
waters, north of 25N, is leading to light to gentle winds and 
slight to moderate seas. 

For the forecast, widespread moderate to fresh N to NE winds and
moderate seas are expected north of the monsoon trough this week
as high pressure builds to the north. 

$$
Konarik