000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271603
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jan 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Storm-force N winds are ongoing
across the Tehunatepec region while gale-force winds extend downwind
to near 12N. Fresh to strong NE to E winds extend beyond 100W. Peak
seas area likely arond 22 ft. Gusty winds near hurricane-force
may occur this morning. Large seas generated from this strong 
gap wind event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, 
with seas 12 ft or greater reaching as far south as 07N by Wed 
morning. Winds are forecast to diminish below storm-force later 
this morning, but strong gale-force winds of 40 to 45 kt will 
persist through the late afternoon hours. Gale conditions will 
then continue through Thu morning. Seas generated from this gap 
wind event will continue to propagate well away of the Tehuantepec
region, and affect the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador
with seas 12 ft or greater through Wed. Winds and seas will 
significantly diminish by Thu evening. Looking ahead, the next 
gap wind event is slated to begin across the Tehuantepec area by 
Fri night with winds reaching gale-force on Sat. Marine interests
transiting across or in the Gulf of Tehuantepec should continue 
be aware of this very strong gap wind event, and take the necessary
action to avoid this hazardous marine conditions over the affected
waters. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on
this event.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N77W to 09N85W to 06N90W. The 
ITCZ continues from 06N90W to 03N110W to 06N115W to beyond
07N140W. Convection is limited. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A storm-force gap wind event is ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
See the Special Features section above for details on this event.

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
supporting light to gentle winds as indicated by the most recent
scatterometer data. However, a tighter pressure gradient between
a strong ridge over the Great Basin and a trough over western 
Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds with seas of 3 
to 5 ft in the Gulf of California, highest near the entrance of 
the gulf. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 
in NW swell dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore forecast
waters.

For the forecast, winds are forecast to diminish below storm-
force in the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this morning, but strong 
gale-force winds of 40 to 45 kt will persist through the late 
afternoon hours. Gale conditions will then continue through Thu 
morning. Seas generated from this gap wind event will continue to
propagate well away of the Tehuantepec region, affecting the
waters from 04N to 15N between 92W and 108W by Wed morning.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are ongoing across the Papagayo 
region and downwind to about 88W. Seas are 5 to 8 ft within 
these winds. Moderate to fresh N winds and slight to moderate 
seas prevail in the Gulf of Panama and downwind to about 06N. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are noted, with slight to 
moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue   
across the Papagayo region through the weekend as high pressure 
builds N of area in the wake of a cold front moving across the NW
Caribbean. These winds will reach near gale-force today and Wed, 
and resume again over the weekend, with seas building to around 
11 ft tonight. Moderate to fresh N winds will continue to pulse 
in the Gulf of Panama through the weekend. Elsewhere, winds will 
be moderate or weaker through Sat. Otherwise, seas generated by a
very strong gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region will 
continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters of 
Guatemala and El Salvador today through Wed evening. The highest 
seas, in the 12 to 18 ft range in NW swell, are expected today. A
second gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec over the upcoming
weekend will also impact these waters with seas to around 14 ft.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge dominates the NW waters between 110W and 130W while a
cold front is moving across the NW waters and extends from
30N133W to 24N140W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and 
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports an area of 
moderate to locally fresh trades N of the ITCZ to about 18N and W
of 110W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft within these winds per recent 
altimeter data. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas
are moderate in mixed NE wind wave and long period NW swell.

For the forecast, the cold front will continue to weaken today
and stall from 30N129W to 27N132W late this afternoon before
dissipating late tonight. Afterward, high pressure will build in
the wake of the front. Rough seas, in the wake of the front, 
will propagate across the forecast waters before subsiding over
the weekend. New NW swell will enter the NW waters Thu night
following another cold front forecast to reach enter the region
Sat morning. 

$$
GR