000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280812
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jan 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure over the Gulf of
America will continue to funnel winds across the Chivela Pass, 
producing N to NE gales over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu 
morning. The event has peaked, but was still producing 40 kt 
peak winds as observed by the ASCAT-C scatterometer at 0322 UTC and
14-15 ft peak seas this evening. These gap winds are also large 
in extent as they reach 12N100W with fresh to strong E winds. 
There will be a brief reprieve over the Gulf of Tehuantepec from 
Thu afternoon into Fri afternoon, while the gap winds reduce down
to moderate to fresh. But a new strong cold front pushing across
the Gulf of America will herald another round of Tehuantepecer 
gale conditions beginning Fri night. These winds may peak as 
severe gales with seas as much as 18 ft Sat afternoon and 
evening. And by the end of the forecast period on Sun night, N to
NE gales are likely to still be occurring.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Zone Forecast 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml for more details 
on this event.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from coastal Colombia at 07N77W to 
03N91W. The ITCZ continues from 03N91W to beyond 06N140W. 
Isolated moderate convection is noted from 06N-10N between 
120W-125W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec
through Thu morning. See the Special Features section above for 
more details.

A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure centered at
31N122W to 20N110W to 15N100W. Moderate to fresh NW winds are 
funneling through the Gulf of California with 2-4 ft seas. Aside
from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, winds over the 
remainder of the Mexican waters are gentle to moderate with 3-5 
ft seas in NW swell. No significant deep convection is occurring.

For the forecast outside of the Tehuantepec region, high 
pressure over the U.S. Great Basin is helping to force moderate 
to fresh NW winds across the Gulf of California before 
diminishing Sat night. Large NW swell will reach the waters west 
of Baja California Norte on Thu and Fri. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of
Papagayo region this evening with seas 6-10 ft. N moderate to 
fresh winds are also observed over the Gulf of Panama with seas 
3-5 ft. Elsewhere, the strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event
is forcing NW to N swell of up to 11 ft across the Guatemala and
El Salvador waters. Over the remainder of forecast waters, winds
are gentle to moderate with seas 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure over Central America and the W 
Caribbean is helping to force fresh to strong NE to E gap winds 
over the Papagayo region through Fri morning. After a brief 
reprieve Fri afternoon to Sat afternoon, these NE to E gap winds 
will resume over the Papagayo region Sat night into Sun night. 
Gale-force winds are even possible Sun night. The same high 
pressure is forcing moderate to fresh N to NE winds over the Gulf
of Panama for the next several days. Elsewhere, a strong Gulf of
Tehuantepec gap wind event forcing large NW to N swell spreading
across the Guatemala and El Salvador waters should continue 
through Thu night. Looking ahead, a new Tehuantepecer should 
again produce large to very large NW to N swell over Guatemala/El
Salvador waters Sat night into at least Sun night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure centered at
31N122W to 20N110W to 15N100W. A dissipating cold front extends 
from 30N128W to 22N135W with another high of 1025 mb behind the 
front at 32N131W. The rather weak pressure gradient between the 
highs and lower pressure over the ITCZ is forcing generally only 
moderate to fresh NE trades. A surface trough extending from 
20N128W to 15N129W is supporting fresh E winds within 180 NM 
east of the trough as well as scattered moderate convection. 
Large NW swell is impacting our NW corner, northwest of a line 
from 30N134W to 24N140W. The strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind
event is forcing N to NE swell of at least 8 ft down to 06N
between 92W-105W. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft in mixed swell.

For the forecast, building high pressure north of our region will
enhance the trades causing a larger area of fresh to strong NE
winds and seas 6-8 ft from Thu through Fri. The large NW swell 
will continue moving southeastward reaching 08N by Fri and 
gradually diminishing. On Fri evening, a new cold front will 
reach 30N140W with fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the 
boundary. However, the cold front will gradually weaken while it 
moves steadily eastward through the weekend. Large to very large 
NW swell will follow the cold front on the weekend.

$$
Landsea