000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092204
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Sep 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The eastern Pacific remains active, with yet another tropical
cyclone developing in the basin today. Tropical Depression 
Fourteen-E forms well south-southwest of the Baja California 
Peninsula. It is centered near 15.7N 115.2W at 09/2100 UTC, 
moving west- northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with 
gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 10 ft per altimeter data. 
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 
90 nm E semicircle of center. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is elsewhere to the E of center from 10N to 18N
between 111W and 115W. A generally westward motion is expected 
over the next couple of days. Gradual strengthening is forecast 
over the next several days, and the depression could become a 
tropical storm tonight or Thursday. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Fourteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 90W north of 03N through Guatemala. 
The wave is moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
to isolated strong conveciton is from 03N to 10N between 84W and 
91W.
 
A tropical wave has its axis along 101W north of 03N. It is 
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is from 04N to 15N between 91W and 107W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N84W to 08N95W to 13N110W,
then continues SW of T.D. Fourteen-E from 12N120W to beyond 
09N140W. In addition to the convection associated with T.D.
Fourteen-E and the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted N of 04N E of 84W to the coast of 
Colombia, and from 01N to 08N W of 122W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas associated with 
the outer periphery of recently upgraded Tropical Depression
Fourteen-E are reaching the Revillagigedo Islands, particularly 
Clarion Island. A recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh to 
strong N gap winds across the Tehuantepec region and downwind to 
near 14N. Moderate to locally rough seas are with these winds. 
Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters of Baja 
California under the influence of a weak ridge extending between 
the peninsula and the remnant low of Marie, which is now just 
north of the forecast area near 30.5N129.5W. Gentle to moderate 
SE to S winds are evident over the northern Gulf of California 
while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across the remainder
of the Gulf. Seas are 1 to 3 ft, highest near the entrance to the
Gulf. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are
present elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, with the
exception of moderate to fresh winds just ahead the tropical wave
located along 101W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas associated
with the outer periphery of T.D. Fourteen-E will continue to 
affect Clarion Island tonight. Winds and seas will diminish on
Thu as the tropical cyclone moves westward and away from the
region. The trailing tropical wave is forecast to provide mainly
moderate to fresh SE winds to the SW Mexican offshore waters 
through Thu. Otherwise, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds will 
continue to pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early 
Fri. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form 
several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja 
California Peninsula this weekend or early next week. Some 
gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical 
depression could form early next week while the system moves 
generally west-northwestward.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are blowing in the Papagayo
region and downwind to 90W, with moderate to rough. Gentle to 
moderate SE to S winds are across the offshores between Ecuador 
and the Galapagos Islands along with moderate seas. Otherwise, 
moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to rough seas across
the Gulf of Papagayo region through Fri, then mainly moderate to
fresh winds and moderate seas are expected. Meanwhile, moderate 
to fresh southerly winds are expected over the waters between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos through tonight, then diminishing some
afterward. Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas in long
period SW swell are forecast elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please, see the Special Features section for more information 
about recently upgraded Tropical Depression Fourteen-E

The remnant low of Marie has moved just N of area, and now is
center near 30.5N129.5W. Fresh to strong SE to S winds and rough
seas are still noted N of 29N between 126W and 129W. Seas 8 ft 
or greater associated with this system cover the waters N of 27N
between 125W and 135W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds along
with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the remainder of the tropical 
eastern Pacific. 

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Fourteen-E will strengthen 
to a tropical storm near 15.9N 117.1W Thu morning, move to 15.8N
119.6W Thu afternoon, 15.7N 122.0W Fri morning, 15.6N 124.2W Fri
afternoon, 15.9N 126.1W Sat morning, and strengthen to a 
hurricane near 16.2N 127.8W Sat afternoon. Fourteen-E will change
little in intensity as it moves to near 17.4N 130.9W Sun
afternoon. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to
form several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula this weekend or early next week. Some 
gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical 
depression could form early next week while the system moves 
generally west-northwestward. This system has a medium chance of
tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.

$$
GR