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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172145
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Feb 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends SW from the Pacific coast of Costa Rica 
at 10N85W to 05N101W where scatterometer winds indicate a 
transition to an ITCZ, which continues W-NW to beyond 08N140W.
Isolated moderate to strong convection is noted along the 
Pacific coast of Colombia within 75 nm of 04N78W, along the 
trough within 75 nm either side of a line from 09N84W to 
05N89W, and within 45 nm of 05N114W.  

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A gentle variable breeze continues around a weak N to S 
orientated trough analyzed between 115W and 118W.  There is a 
chance a weak surface low will form along the trough near 
26N116W tonight and persist through Sun. A moderate to fresh N 
breeze is currently observed elsewhere E of the trough to along 
105W.  A cold front will sweep quickly E across the area N of 
28N tonight through Mon night eroding the weak low and its 
parent trough.  A post-frontal ridge will set up from 23N116W to 
18N107W by Mon evening as high pressure strengthens resulting in 
a fresh to strong NW breeze spreading SE across the waters W of 
the Baja Norte on Mon, accompanied by NW swell building seas to 
8 to 13 ft. The pressure gradient will relax some on Tue. 

Gulf of California: Strong SW-W winds will develop across the 
waters from 29.5N to 31N on Sun evening in association with a 
cold front.  The strong winds will clock to the N behind the 
front and persist through Mon night.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure across the Gulf of Mexico 
will support fresh to strong northerly surges through the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec through Sun night, with these strong northerly 
winds resuming on Thu.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong to occasionally near gale force NE 
winds will continue to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf 
of Papagayo through the upcoming week, with seas building to 9 
ft as far SW as 10N91W.

Gulf of Panama: Fresh nocturnal N winds expected through Thu 
night.  

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
09N while light to gentle SW winds forecast S of 09N. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A broad ridge covers the discussion waters N of the ITCZ and W 
of 120W, with 6 to 8 ft seas in mixing swell. These seas will 
gradually subside through Sun, then build again beginning Sun 
night as strong trades develop across the tropical waters W of 
130W while strong N winds spread S across the northern waters in 
the wake of a cold front sweeping E across the Baja Peninsula.  

$$
Nelson