AXPZ20 KNHC 250244
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0240 UTC Tue Feb 25 2020
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 08N83W to 04N100W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N100W to 04N110W to 02N120W to 04N135W to
03N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 02N to 06N between 87W and 100W. Scattered moderate
convection was noted from 02N to 05N between 110W and 115W.
Scattered moderate convection was noted from 05N to 10N between
125W and 131W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Gulf of Tehuantepec: A strong cold front will move across the
Gulf of Mexico the middle of the week. The pressure gradient
between high pressure building in the wake of the cold front and
the equatorial trough in the eastern north Pacific will tighten
and help usher in the next gap wind event over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec on Wed. Winds will start to funnel through the
Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec late in the day on
Wednesday. Winds are forecast to increase to 30-45 kt by Wed
evening, then possibly reaching minimal storm force by Wed night.
Winds will diminish to gale force on Thu, and the gale force
winds are expected to continue to prevail through Sat night.
Seas with this upcoming event are forecast to peak near 23 ft
Gulf of California: A surface ridge extends across the offshore
waters off the Baja California peninsula while a surface trough
is located over western Mexico. The pressure gradient between
these features is supporting fresh to locally strong NW-N winds
across the Gulf of California S of 27N. By the middle of the
week, high pressure will build across the Great Basin region of
the United States. This will help to strengthen winds over most
of the Gulf of California, with seas building to 8 or 9 ft mainly
S of 27N on Wed.
Elsewhere, high pressure prevails over the offshore waters west
of the Baja California peninsula supporting fresh to locally
strong NW to N winds. A set of NW swell propagating across the
waters W of Baja California will continue to spread southward,
bringing seas of 8 ft or greater west of the Baja peninsula to
near the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas will start to subside by
the middle of the week. Fresh to strong winds are also forecast
to filter through the passages in Baja California Norte into the
Pacific offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia on Wed as winds
increase in the Gulf of California.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gulf of Papagayo: Winds will strengthen Thu as high pressure
builds N of the area. Strong to near gale force winds are
expected on Fri, possibly reaching minimal gale force during the
Gulf of Panama: Winds will increase Fri as high pressure builds
N of the area.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft will
prevail into Tue.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A ridge extends from high pressure of 1036 mb, centered N of the
area near 37N132W, to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to
strong tradewinds N of the ITCZ to near 20N and W of 125W. Seas
in the 9-11 ft range prevails over this area. The area of high
pressure will start to weaken through midweek. This will decrease
aerial coverage of the fresh to strong trades.
Seas of 8 ft or greater prevail over much of the forecast waters
W of 110W in a broads mix of swell. The swell will gradually
subside over the next couple of days, and aerial coverage of
seas 8 ft or greater will decrease. By midweek, much of the
waters W of 110W will subside below 8 ft.
A new set of long period NW swell will reach the NW waters on Wed
and spread SE. Seas will peak near 11 ft over the far NW waters
Wed night before starting to subside.