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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



727 
AXPZ20 KNHC 080900
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jul 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Cristina is centered near 13.9N 106.5W at 08/0900 
UTC moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 
1003 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. 
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm of 
the center except 90 nm in the NE quadrant. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 480 nm in the SW 
semicircle. Cristina is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane on 
Thu, and continue to move W-NW, well offshore of Mexico. Please 
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for 
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 87W, north of 02N into Central America, 
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 05N to 10N between 85W and 88W.

A tropical wave is along 117W from 03N to 18N, moving W at 10 to 
15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 11N to 14N between 113W and 117W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 11N97W, then 
resumes near 16N113W to 1011 mb low pressure near 16N120W to 
1011 mb low pressure near 08N136W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 119W 
and 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on 
Tropical Storm Cristina.

While the strongest winds and seas associated with Cristina are 
forecast to remain well away from the coast of Mexico, a swath 
of fresh to strong SE winds northeast of the center is, based on 
scatterometer data, occurring along the coast of Mexico between 
100W and 104W due to funneling effects near the coast. Outer 
bands of convection of Cristina will pass through these offshore 
waters, with squalls and heavy rainfall.

A ridge will dominate the waters west of Baja California through 
Thu, retracting westward on Thu as Cristina approaches the area. 
The ridge will continue to support gentle to moderate NW-N winds.

Strong NW winds west of California generated 8-9 ft northerly 
swell in the waters N of Punta Eugenia since Tue. The swell will 
subside as it propagates southwward across the waters N of Cabo 
San Lazaro today, with seas becoming 5-7 ft.

Expect pulsing fresh southerly winds over the northern Gulf of 
California on Fri as the pressure gradient tightens across the 
area. Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected 
elsewhere across the Gulf of California.

Fresh northerly gap winds are expected in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec on Fri.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are expected in the Papagayo region 
during the next several days. Moderate to occasionally fresh SW 
winds will prevail over the waters S of 10N. Seas will be mainly 
4 to 6 ft in S-SW swell through Sun. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on 
Tropical Storm Cristina. 

A surface ridge dominates the northern waters, with moderate to 
fresh N-NE winds across the area. Northerly swell will spread 
across much of the region N of 20N W of 120W today, decaying 
through early Thu.

A 1011 mb low pressure area is analyzed along the monsoon trough 
near 16N120W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted southwest of the low center. A small area of fresh to 
strong winds and seas to 9 ft are associated with this low. Some 
slow development of this system is possible during the next two 
days before environmental conditions become unfavorable.

A area of low pressure is expected to form south of Tehuantepec 
late this week or this weekend. Environmental conditions are 
expected to be conducive for development this weekend as the 
system moves westward, well S of the coast of Mexico.

$$
Mundell