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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



053 
AXPZ20 KNHC 170233
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
120 UTC Wed Jul 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave with axis near 94W N of 03N is moving west 
around 15 kt. A broad cyclonic surface circulation is associated 
with this wave and a low is analyzed to have formed near 09N93W 
along the wave axis. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 92W and 100W. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for 
gradual development later this week, and a tropical depression 
could form by the weekend as it moves well south of the coast of 
Mexico. 

A tropical wave with axis near 114W from 03N to 20N is moving 
west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
was noted from 06N to 13N between 110W and 120W. 

A tropical wave with axis near 135W from 03N to 15N is moving 
west around 15 kt. No significant deep convection is currently 
occurring in association with this wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N93W to 09N101W to 
13N120W to 10N133W. The ITCZ extends from 10N133W to 09N135W. It
resumes from 09N137W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 83W and 86W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 10N 
to 13N between 100W and 110W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection was noted from 07N to 13N between 120W and 128W. 
Scattered moderate convection was noted from 08N to 10N W of 
138W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A surface high well west of California is contributing to 
quiescent winds over most of the Mexican offshore zones through 
Sun. A complex low pressure system over the U.S. Great Basin is 
forcing SE fresh to strong breeze over the central and northern 
Gulf of California through Wed. A surface high over the Gulf of 
Mexico combined with the monsoon trough will force a N fresh to 
strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec from Wed through
Fri. No tropical cyclone activity is expected to impact the 
Mexican offshore zones for the next several days. No significant 
long period-swell should affect the area through at least Sun. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A moderate N to S pressure gradient across Central America is 
forcing NE to E winds up to strong breeze in the Gulf of Papagayo
through Sun. Elsewhere E winds should remain moderate or weaker 
north of the monsoon trough along 09N/10N, and S to SW moderate 
breeze or weaker south of the trough. No tropical cyclone 
activity is expected to impact the Central America offshore zones
for the next several days. No significant long- period swell 
should affect the area through at least Sun.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A ridge extends from high pressure northwest of our area near 
38N151W se to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure
gradient between with area of high pressure and low pressure 
along the monsoon trough will help for moderate to fresh NE 
tradewinds for the next several days. Low pressure of 1008 mb is
centered near 11N94W. Environmental conditions are forecast to 
become conducive for gradual development of this low later this 
week, and a tropical depression could form this weekend as it 
moves well south of the coast of Mexico. No significant long 
period- swell should affect the area through at least Sun. 

$$
AL