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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200238
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
237 UTC Mon May 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from north central Colombia to 1007 
mb low pressure near 10N92W to 07N120W. The ITCZ continues from 
07N120W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
03N to 06N between 85W and 90W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A cold front reaches from near Ensenada, Baja California Norte 
southwest to beyond Guadalupe Island. Winds are increasing to
moderate to fresh off the Pacific coast of Baja California as the
front moves through. Similarly, W to NW winds are likely starting
over the far northern part of the Gulf of California. Light to
gentle winds persist for now over the remainder of the Gulf of
California. Light to gentle winds with seas in the 4 to 6 ft 
range prevails over the remainder of the open waters off the 
coast of Mexico.

The cold front will move through Baja California Norte and the
northern Gulf of California through Mon, then dissipate by Tue. 
A large set of long period southerly swell will continue to move 
into the Mexican offshore waters through Mon before mixing with 
northwest swell beginning on Mon night. Another weak cold front 
may move across Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of 
California by mid week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail across the area. Seas in the 4 to 7
ft range prevails over the offshore waters north of 02N, while 
seas are reaching 8 ft in SW swell south of 02N. 

Mainly light to gentle SW monsoon flow will prevail across most 
of the region for the next several days. Large cross equatorial 
southwest swell is moving into the outer offshore waters of 
Central America and will persist through mid week.

Deep atmospheric moisture, along with favorable large scale lift
over this region will help contribute to the development of 
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms well into the 
upcoming week. Some of this activity may produce heavy rain and 
strong gusty winds.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A cold front reaching from near Ensenada, Baja California Norte
to 23N135W will continue to move across the waters north of 20N 
through early Mon. Earlier scatterometer and altimeter satellite
images show moderate to fresh NW winds following the front along
with 7 to 9 ft seas, primarily in NW swell. Weak high pressure 
building behind the front is supporting moderate to fresh trade 
winds farther south into the deep tropics along the ITCZ, with 5 
to 7 ft seas. No significant showers or thunderstorms are noted 
due to the relatively weak trade wind convergence. The 
combination of the northerly swell, southerly swell and local 
winds will build seas to 8 ft over much of the trade wind belt 
west of 120W by the middle of the week.

$$
Christensen