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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 290842

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed May 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N100W to 08N120W. 
The ITCZ extends from 08N120W to 1009 mb low pressure near 
08N132W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is active within 90 nm of the coast from northwest 
Nicaragua to central Guatemala. Scattered moderate convection is
also from 08N to 10N between 115W and 120W.


A scatterometer satellite pass from 04 UTC indicated moderate to
fresh NW winds across the offshore waters of Baja California,
primarily off Punta Eugenia. These winds persist between high
pressure west of the region and lower pressure over central
Mexico. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere. Combined 
seas are 4 to 6 ft in NW swell off Baja California, 3 to 5 ft off
southern Mexico, and 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California.
Regional observations confirm hazy conditions persist off 
southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to 
agricultural fires over southern Mexico and Central America. 
Visibilities may decrease at times to 3 nm or less.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will continue to support
moderate to fresh NW to N winds and moderate seas off Baja 
California into mid-week. Light to gentle winds and moderate 
seas in SW swell will prevail across open waters elsewhere.  
Expect building seas with the arrival of long period NW swell 
beyond 90 nm off Baja California from tonight through Fri, with 
seas building up to 9 or 10 ft N of Punta Eugenia. Hazy 
conditions may persist off southern and SW Mexico, including the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over southern 
Mexico and Central America.


High pressure north of the area supports moderate to locally
fresh easterly trade winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas
in these waters are 3 to 5 ft. Moderate to occasionally fresh 
southerly winds are noted on a recent scatterometer satellite 
pass south of the monsoon trough. Seas in these waters are 4 to 6 
ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas 

Divergence aloft associated with an upper trough reaching from 
the Yucatan Peninsula to Guatemala is producing scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms from the Gulf of Fonseca to
off the coast of Chiapas in southern Mexico. Hazy conditions 
continue off the Central American coast due to agricultural fires
in southern Mexico and Central America. Visibilities may 
decrease at times to 3 nm or less.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly gap winds are
forecast across the Papagayo region through Friday. Elsewhere, 
gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist south of the 
monsoon trough along roughly 10N while light to gentle winds are 
expected north of it through Fri. Combined seas will remain in 
the 4-6 ft range into Sun as additional pulses of SW swell 
propagate across the forecast region. Hazy skies from smoke 
caused by agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America may 
reduce visibilities over portions of the Central America offshore
waters through the next few days.


Ridging north of 15N continues to dominate the remainder of the 
tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure gradient between the 
aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics 
result in moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds south of
22N and west of 120W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate 
to fresh northerly winds and seas of 5-6 ft are noted from 19N to
26N and east of 120W. Stronger winds and higher seas may be 
present near the thunderstorms along the monsoon trough and ITCZ.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, building high pressure north of the region 
will support an increased area of fresh to locally strong trade 
winds, mainly from 08N to 22N west of 120W, allowing seas to 
build to 10 ft over the next few days. Meanwhile, northerly 
swell will move into the waters north of 25N and east of 130W Wed
and Thu, with maximum seas reaching 8-10 ft in a combination of 
NW swell and fresh NW winds. Gentle to moderate breezes and 
moderate seas will persist elsewhere.