000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041520
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jul 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave previously analyzed along 96W is now being
detected in the vicinity of 102W. This wave is gradually merging
with the tropical wave just ahead of it, and is being analyzed 
on the 1200 UTC surface map as one large, merged, tropical wave 
along 106W. See the description below. 

A tropical wave is analyzed along 106W, south of 16N, moving 
west around 10 kt. The associated moisture field with this merged
wave extends between 97W and 114W. Overnight satellite
scatterometer data showed fresh easterly winds from 04N to 12N
accompanying this wave. Associated convection is described below
in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 08N79W to 09N86W to 
06N106W. The ITCZ extends from 06N106W to 08N119W to 05.5N130W 
to beyond 09N140W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection 
is from 03N to 11N E of 91W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 04.5N to 12N between 98W and 117W, and 
from 02.5N to 10N between 117W and 134W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge extends from the NE Pacific across the Baja California
waters to the Revillagigedo Islands, and is maintaining gentle 
to moderate NW to N winds, with 5-6 ft seas in merging NW and SW
swell, per recent satellite altimeter data. Gentle breezes and 
slight seas are noted elsewhere to Puerto Angel. Overnight
satellite scatterometer data showed fresh N gap winds across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec extending southward to 14.5N, where seas are
5 to 7 ft. Low level convergent flow is supporting clusters of 
showers and thunderstorms across the near and offshore waters of 
Guerrero and extending well offshore to 13.5N. Gusty winds and
locally rough seas accompany this activity.

For the forecast, the ridge extending into the Baja California waters
will continue to maintain gentle to moderate breezes through 
today, becoming moderate to occasionally fresh near the coast of
Baja California starting this evening through Tue, as the high 
pressure strengthens modestly across the area. Fresh to strong 
gap winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning,
and to a lesser extent tonight, then diminish. Looking ahead, SW
swell to 7 ft is expected to reach the waters off southern 
Mexico early next week. Expect fresh southerly winds across the 
northern Gulf of California Tue and Wed. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Large clusters of strong thunderstorms are shifting slowly
westward across the waters of Colombia, Panama and eastern Costa
Rica this morning, and extend northward into the SW Caribbean.
Overnight satellite scatterometer data showed fresh to locally strong
E gap winds across the Papagayo region extending offshore to 
89W, where seas are 5-7 ft. Mostly gentle to moderate SW to W
winds are noted elsewhere S of 10N, with 4-6 ft seas in cross-
equatorial SW swell. 

For the forecast, the scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
expected to continue to shift westward across the area waters off
Panama and Costa Rica through early Sun before activity begin to
shift northward into the Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE to E gap 
winds will pulse tonight and again Mon night across the Papagayo 
region into early next week, leading to occasional rough seas. 
Large cross-equatorial southerly swell to 8 ft will move into 
the waters off Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Sun through Tue.
Farther north, the combination of the southerly swell with 
shorter period seas associated with gap winds will allow combined
seas to 8 ft off northern Central America by Tue into Wed. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1006 mb low pressure area, the remnant low of Douglas, is
centered near 22N129W. Overnight satellite scatterometer data 
indicated fresh to strong winds were still occurring within 240 
nm of the center of this low, mainly on the northern side 
between the low the subtropical ridge to the north of the area. 
Concurrent altimeter satellite data showed wave heights to 13 ft 
just to the east of the center, indicated maximum seas to 14 ft 
in the area of strongest winds to the north of the center. The 
presence of this low pressure is disrupting the subtropical ridge
north of 20N. This pattern is supporting mostly gentle to 
moderate NE winds elsewhere west of 120W, with 5-8 ft seas in a 
mix of swell. East of 120W, a long plume of fresh E winds and 7-8
ft seas emerging from the Papagayo gap area is reaching as far 
west as 115W, from 06N to 12N. Gentle breezes are noted 
elsewhere east of 120W. Wave heights are 6-8 ft with SW swell. 

For the forecast, winds and seas near the remnants of Douglas 
will gradually diminish through Sun night as the remnant low 
weakens and opens into a trough. The ridge will drift 
southwestward and generally persist across the region through 
early next week, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds farther
south into the tropics. Looking ahead, weak low pressure may 
form south of the Revillagigedo Islands by the early to middle
part of the coming week. Environmental conditions could support 
some gradual development of this system while it moves generally 
westward at 10-15 kt, although chances of development at this 
time are low.

$$
Stripling