121 
AXPZ20 KNHC 032158
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Oct 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Lidia is centered near 12.8N 107.6W at 03/2100 
UTC, or about 415 nm SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico, moving northwest
at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum 
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 330 nm of the
center in the NW semicircle. A NW to NNW motion will continue 
for the next several days. Gradual strengthening is forecast over
the next few days, and Lidia could become a hurricane late this 
week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Lidia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 13N104W, then continues
W of Tropical Storm Lidia near 11N110W to 1009 mb low pressure 
near 12N125W to 12N140W. Numerous moderate isolated strong 
convection is seen from 03N to 13N between 77W and 101W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between
101W and 105W, and from 04N to 12N between 116W and 132W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia.

Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails across the offshore waters 
of Mexico. Moderate NNW winds prevail to the west of Baja 
California. Moderate N winds are in the immediate Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, also shown by the ASCAT satellite. Winds are 
moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft in NW swell 
offshore Baja California, and 4-6 ft elsewhere across the open 
waters. Seas are 2-4 ft in the southern and central Gulf of 
California and 1-3 ft in the northern Gulf.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Lidia will move to 14.5N109W Wed
afternoon, 16N110W Thu afternoon, 16N111W Fri afternoon,
16N112.5W Sat afternoon, and strengthen to a hurricane near
16N114W Sun afternoon. Lidia will begin directly affecting 
Mexico offshore forecast zones well to the WSW of Jalisco and 
Colima, and well to the south of Cabo San Lucas Thu and continue 
into the weekend. Winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec may increase
to fresh to strong this weekend. Winds will be moderate or 
weaker elsewhere through the week. Looking ahead, an area of low 
pressure is expected to form a few hundred nm south of the coast 
of Central America during the next few days. Afterward, 
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely 
to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves
slowly westward or west-northwestward. This system could be 
located to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late in the 
weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh SW winds are occurring to the south of the
monsoon trough, from the Equator to 07N. Elsewhere, winds are 
moderate or weaker. Seas are 4-7 ft in S swell across the
offshore waters, confirmed by recent altimeter passes. Numerous
moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring offshore
Panama and Colombia.

For the forecast, winds will be moderate or weaker across the 
offshore waters through most of the week, except for locally
fresh SW winds from the Equator to 10N through Wed. New long- 
period southerly swell will build seas slightly offshore Ecuador 
to the Galapagos Islands through Wed night, with mainly moderate
seas elsewhere. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is 
expected to form a few hundred nm south of the coast of Central 
America during the next few days. Afterward, environmental 
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development 
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late 
this week or over the weekend while the system moves slowly 
westward or west-northwestward.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia.

Elsewhere, recent ASCAT data shows mainly moderate NE winds N of
12N and W of 125W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker 
elsewhere, except moderate to fresh S winds south of the monsoon 
trough between 100W and 130W. Seas are 7-9 ft in northerly swell
N of 17N and west of 125W. Seas are 7-8 ft in SE swell S of 07N 
between 105W and 135W. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere in mixed
swell.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Lidia will move to 14.5N109W Wed
afternoon, 16N110W Thu afternoon, 16N111W Fri afternoon,
16N112.5W Sat afternoon, and strengthen to a hurricane near
16N114W Sun afternoon. Elsewhere, the northerly swell across the
northern waters will gradually decay through mid-week. The low 
pressure area embedded in the monsoon trough near 12N125W is 
forecast to continue to produce moderate to fresh winds and seas 
to 8 ft on the NW side before weakening mid-week while not moving
much. Winds of moderate or weaker will prevail across the 
remainder of the open waters through the next several days. 
Meanwhile, southerly swell of 7-9 ft will wax and wane through 
the week and into the weekend from around 05N southward.

$$
Hagen