AXPZ20 KNHC 170233
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
120 UTC Wed Jul 17 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A tropical wave with axis near 94W N of 03N is moving west
around 15 kt. A broad cyclonic surface circulation is associated
with this wave and a low is analyzed to have formed near 09N93W
along the wave axis. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 92W and 100W.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for
gradual development later this week, and a tropical depression
could form by the weekend as it moves well south of the coast of
A tropical wave with axis near 114W from 03N to 20N is moving
west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
was noted from 06N to 13N between 110W and 120W.
A tropical wave with axis near 135W from 03N to 15N is moving
west around 15 kt. No significant deep convection is currently
occurring in association with this wave.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N93W to 09N101W to
13N120W to 10N133W. The ITCZ extends from 10N133W to 09N135W. It
resumes from 09N137W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 83W and 86W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 10N
to 13N between 100W and 110W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted from 07N to 13N between 120W and 128W.
Scattered moderate convection was noted from 08N to 10N W of
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A surface high well west of California is contributing to
quiescent winds over most of the Mexican offshore zones through
Sun. A complex low pressure system over the U.S. Great Basin is
forcing SE fresh to strong breeze over the central and northern
Gulf of California through Wed. A surface high over the Gulf of
Mexico combined with the monsoon trough will force a N fresh to
strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec from Wed through
Fri. No tropical cyclone activity is expected to impact the
Mexican offshore zones for the next several days. No significant
long period-swell should affect the area through at least Sun.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A moderate N to S pressure gradient across Central America is
forcing NE to E winds up to strong breeze in the Gulf of Papagayo
through Sun. Elsewhere E winds should remain moderate or weaker
north of the monsoon trough along 09N/10N, and S to SW moderate
breeze or weaker south of the trough. No tropical cyclone
activity is expected to impact the Central America offshore zones
for the next several days. No significant long- period swell
should affect the area through at least Sun.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A ridge extends from high pressure northwest of our area near
38N151W se to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure
gradient between with area of high pressure and low pressure
along the monsoon trough will help for moderate to fresh NE
tradewinds for the next several days. Low pressure of 1008 mb is
centered near 11N94W. Environmental conditions are forecast to
become conducive for gradual development of this low later this
week, and a tropical depression could form this weekend as it
moves well south of the coast of Mexico. No significant long
period- swell should affect the area through at least Sun.