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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



799 
AXPZ20 KNHC 290305
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Oct 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...Strong high pressure building 
across the western Gulf of Mexico behind a cold front overnight 
through Thursday will induce strong northerly gap winds through 
the Chivela pass and across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu evening.
Model guidance suggests a rapid increase to near gale force Thu 
afternoon, increasing to 40 kt overnight, with gales continuing 
into Sat morning. Strong gap winds will persist Saturday, with 
gales returning Sun morning. Peak seas during the high wind event
are expected to build to around 16 to 17 ft Fri afternoon.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

There are presently no identifiable tropical waves analyzed across
the eastern Pacific Ocean.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N79W to 13N97W to low 
pres 1010 mb near 11N119W to 10N127W. The ITCZ continues from
10N127W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 78W and 89W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 88W and
94W, and scattered moderate to strong convection is evident from
07N to 12N between 114W and 127W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds prevail west of Baja 
California where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Winds and seas are expected
to diminish across the region Thu as high pressure north of the
area drifts northwest.

Winds will remain light to gentle over the SW Mexico offshore
waters south of 19N, except for the offshore waters between 
Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo, where moderate to fresh NW winds 
are expected through Thu evening. Except for offshore the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere 
through the weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate south to southwest winds will prevail south of the 
monsoon trough through Sun. Seas are expected to increase west 
of Guatemala and El Salvador Fri through Sat night due to gale 
force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec pushing northerly waves 
into the area. Moderate to fresh offshore gap winds are expected 
across the Papagayo region Sat night.

Active convection continues tonight across the waters north of 
04N, from the Papagayo region southeastward into Central America
and coastal Colombia. Ample moisture persists across this region
between the exiting Zeta in the northern Gulf of Mexico and an 
approaching tropical wave in the central Caribbean Sea along 77W.
Showers and thunderstorms will gradually shift west through Thu 
night, and well offshore by Fri. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge persists across the northern forecast waters west 
of 120W. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressures 
associated with the monsoon trough will support moderate to fresh
NE trade winds over an area roughly from 12N to 23N, west of 
115W, for the next several days. Recent altimeter data indicated 
seas are mainly 6 to 7 ft across this region in a mix of swell 
and easterly wind waves. Little change is expected through Fri.

South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh S to SW winds 
prevail between 100W and 130W. Winds between 115W and 130W are 
expected to increase slightly through Thu afternoon, raising 
sea heights to around 8 ft there. 

$$
Mundell


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Page last modified: Thursday, 29-Oct-2020 03:05:37 UTC