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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162152
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion  
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Nov 16 2018  

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2145 UTC.      

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force winds extending as 
far S as 14.5N95.5W, accompanied by seas to 16 ft, will 
gradually diminish through late Sat morning. Strong to near gale 
winds will then pulse through late Sun morning. Near gale force 
northerly winds will resume on Sun evening and continue through 
late Mon morning, then develop again on Mon evening and continue 
through Tue morning. Model guidance is hinting at minimal gale 
force conditions developing again briefly on Tue night. 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends W off the Caribbean coast of Colombia 
at 09N78W across the northern Gulf of Panama to the Pacific 
coast of Costa Rica at 09N86W and then turns SW to 08N98W where 
scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ, which then 
continues W to 07N104W to 09N132W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 75 nm either 
side of a line from 08N95W to 08N109W to 06N113W, within 150 nm 
of 11N121W, and within 30 nm either side of a line from 11N131W 
to 06N140W.  

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Gulf of Tehuantepec...refer to the Special Features section for 
the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event.

Gulf of California: Light NW-N winds and 1 to 2 ft seas are 
expected across the entire gulf waters tonight. Light and 
variable winds are expected over the northern gulf waters early 
Sat. Moderate NW winds will develop across the entire gulf 
waters on Sun night, becoming a fresh breeze over the northern 
waters on Mon and Mon night. 

A weak NW to SE ridge extends across the Mexican offshore waters 
W of 100W with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow forecast 
through the middle of next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo...Fresh to locally strong NE winds, with seas 
building briefly to 8 ft well downstream, are expected through 
the middle of next week.

Light to locally moderate northerly flow is forecast elsewhere N 
of the monsoon trough while moderate southwesterly monsoonal 
flow, with 4 to 6 ft seas, are forecast S of the monsoon trough 
through the middle of next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

Long period northeasterly swell is mixing with cross-equatorial 
swell across the waters S of 14N between 92W and 113W. This 
swell will propagate W reaching across the waters S of 15N 
between 105W and 124W on Sun, then gradually subside to less 
than 8 ft by the middle of next week. 

A ridge is meandering from 32N130W to beyond 22N116W. Fresh 
trades, and 7 to 9 ft seas, currently observed between 10N and 
20N W of 122W, will subside to less than 8 ft by early Sun.

A cold front will reach from 32N138W to 28N140W tonight 
accompanied by a fresh SW-W-NW wind shift, and 7 to 10 ft seas. 
The front will weaken early next week, but reach the Baja 
Peninsula on Wed.  The associated NW swell will subside to less 
than 8 ft late Mon. 

Another round of NW swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will 
reach 30N140W late Mon night. A tightening pressure gradient 
will result in strong W winds N of 30N between 125W and 140W on 
Wed. Strong NE trades are also forecast from 15N to 22N W of 
135W on Wed.   

$$
Nelson

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Page last modified: Friday, 16-Nov-2018 21:52:25 UTC