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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



347 
AXPZ20 KNHC 220409
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Oct 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale warning: Shower activity associated with a low pressure 
area located a few hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec has become better organized during the last 24 hours.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for 
additional development of this system during the next several 
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next
couple of days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward 
to northwestward near or just offshore the southern coast of 
Mexico. A gale warning has been issued accordingly for the waters
off western Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Michoacan. Regardless of 
development, this system could bring an increase in winds and 
seas across the southern coast of Mexico from Oaxaca to Michoacan
over the next 48-72 hours. Currently, this system has a high 
chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Please see
latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 140W extending from 05N to 16N, moving 
westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is observed
near this tropical wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 1009 mb low pressure
near 13N98W to 09N105W to 1011 mb low pressure near 13N117W to
08N131W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed in
the Gulf of Panama. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 92W and 101W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from
13N to 15N between 115W and 117W, and from 09N to 12N between
117W and 112W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from 1021 mb high pressure centered near
28N125W to south of Los Cabos. Moderate to occasionally fresh NW
winds persist between the ridge axis and lower pressure over
north central Mexico. A pair of afternoon radar altimeter
satellite passes indicated moderate seas off Baja California. NW
swell in excess of 8 ft has started entering the waters off Baja
California Norte since those passes. Farther south, fresh to
strong winds are likely off western Oaxaca and eastern Guerrero
in thunderstorms associated with 1009 mb low pressure developing
about 210 nm SSW of Puerto Angel. Seas are building in this area
to near 8 ft, due to local winds and longer period SW swell. 

For the forecast, in additional the high likelihood of a 
tropical depression forming off southern Mexico over the next 
couple of days, NW swell in excess of 8 ft moving into the 
offshore waters of Baja California Norte will subside through 
Fri. Another set of large NW swell will follow Fri night, reach 
as far south as Socorro Island by Sun, then subside Mon and Tue. 
Looking ahead, a third round of NW swell may reach Baja 
California Norte waters Mon night into Tue. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Mainly gentle to moderate S to SW will follow the 
monsoon trough as it lifts north of the area over the next couple
of days. By Sat night into Sun, expect building seas in SW swell
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. This swell event is 
forecast to reach the offshore forecast waters of western Panama 
on Sun, supporting seas to 8 ft. Seas will subside thereafter
across the region.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1021 mb high pressure centered near 28N125W is shifting east and
weakening ahead of a cold front moving across waters north of 25N
over the next couple of days. Large, long period NW swells 
follow the front forecast to reach 30N128W to 27N140W on Fri, and
from 30N119W to 26N140W on Sat while weakening. Moderate to 
fresh SW winds are between the front and the high. Currently, 
seas of 8 to 11 ft in NW swell cover the area northwest of a line
from Guadalupe Island to 14N140W. Highest seas of 12 to 15 ft 
are expected in the wake of the front by Fri morning. This swell 
event will continue to propagate across the forecast region 
through at least Sat, with seas in excess of 8 ft covering much 
of the waters N of 20N W of 120W. 

$$
Christensen


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Page last modified: Friday, 22-Oct-2021 04:10:03 UTC