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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250227
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0227 UTC Sat May 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of California Gale Warning...

A cold front will approach Baja California Norte Sat and Sat night,
and SW gap winds will strengthen ahead of the front across the 
northern Gulf of California. Strong winds will prevail Sat night 
through Sun night north of 29.5N with a brief period of gale 
force winds expected late Sat night into Sun morning. Winds will 
shift by early Mon, becoming NW to N as the cold front crosses 
the northern Gulf and weakens. Then, wind speeds over the Gulf 
will diminish through mid week.

...Excessive Rainfall Over Central America...

A large cyclonic gyre that is typical for this time of the year, 
called a Central American Gyre, will continue bringing abundant 
moisture and heavy rainfall across portions of Central America
during the next few days. Life-threatening flash flooding and 
mudslides will be possible in areas of mountainous terrain. 
Please refer to your local meteorological service for more 
details. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W
to 1008 mb low pressure near 11.5N87W to 07N95W to 09N110W to
07N119W. The ITCZ continues from 07N119W to 08N127W to beyond 
07N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is
noted within 240 nm NW quadrant of low center. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring within 180 nm south of the trough between
102W and 110W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A weakening high pressure ridge over the Baja California offshore
waters has relaxed the offshore pressure gradient, and winds have
diminished to gentle to moderate NW breezes. Residual NW swell
has continued decaying this evening, and max wave heights were
analyzed to 8 ft south of Cabo San Lazaro at 00Z based on recent
altimeter data. Fresh winds are expected to develop off the
southern tip of Baja California Sur Sat night into early next
week as the ridge builds southeastward once again. Expect seas
off Baja California to build up to 8-9 ft Tue through Wed as SW
swell mixes with locally generated NW wind waves.

Smoke and haze from ongoing fires over southern Mexico may briefly
reduce visibilities over the nearshore waters from near Las Tres
Marias southward to the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region late tonight and again on
Sat night with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. 
Seas will build to 8-9 ft early Sun morning with the slightly
stronger gap winds. Fresh winds early on Mon will diminish to 
gentle speeds through mid week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please read the Special Features section for more information 
about the Central American Gyre, which will bring heavy rain to 
parts of Central America and the adjacent offshore waters. As the
monsoon trough lifts northward in association with the Central
American Gyre, southerly monsoon flow will prevail over the 
forecast waters and likely strengthen early next week. Seas 8 ft
or less this weekend will build to 8-12 ft by mid week as SW swell
mixes with locally generated wind waves from strengthening monsoon
flow. Some gradual tropical development of a low pressure trough
extending from Nicaragua westward to the far eastern Pacific is 
possible over the next few days if the disturbance remains offshore.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Residual NW swell lingers over the northern forecast waters with
8-9 ft seas roughly north of 27N between 120W and 132W based on
00Z altimeter data. Wave heights will fall below 8 ft on Sat as
the remaining swell over the region decays.

Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh NE trade winds between 
the ITCZ and a high pressure ridge extending southeast across the
northern waters. These trades will gradually diminish and seas 
will subside this weekend as high pressure weakens north of the 
area.

SW swell across the southern waters is producing seas to 8 ft 
over portions of the forecast waters south of the Equator. Another
SW swell event will enter the southern waters on Sun and propagate
northward through mid week. This will result in a large area of 
seas 8 ft or greater south of 11N between 90W and 125W by Tue.

$$
Reinhart

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Page last modified: Saturday, 25-May-2019 02:27:38 UTC