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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061915
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Oct 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A locally tight pressure
gradient over the Gulf of Tehuantepec is supporting fresh to
strong northerly winds there per recent ASCAT data, along with 
seas of 8-9 ft. The gradient will tighten slightly Fri night 
allowing for winds to increase to minimal gale force. Winds will 
pulse to minimal gale force through Mon, with seas occasionally 
building to 10-12 ft. Please read the latest NHC High Seas 
Forecast at hurricanes.gov/marine for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 12N105W to 09N115W to
15N130W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 82W and 91W, from 09N
to 15N between 102W and 111W, and from 10N to 17N between 125W 
and 136W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N 
between 99W and 102W, and from 05N to 10N between 116W and 122W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a
developing gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Elsewhere, the remnants of Paine are near 18.5N115W with no deep
convection. Residual moderate to fresh winds and seas of 6-7 ft
are present near the center. Moderate to fresh winds are also
noted south of 17N and west of 103W in some deep convection. A 
high pressure ridge prevails west of Baja California. Light and 
variable winds prevail elsewhere over the offshore waters off 
Mexico as well as the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 4-6 ft 
range over the open waters off Mexico, in S-SW swell east of 
109W, and NW swell west of 109W. Seas are 3 ft or less over the 
Gulf of California north of the entrance. 

For the forecast, other than the upcoming gale force gap wind
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the remnant low of Paine will 
continue to weaken, loosening the pressure gradient, and 
diminishing remnant winds and seas. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail elsewhere through early next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh offshore winds are in the Papagayo region.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate monsoonal winds are south of 06N, 
and light to gentle winds are north of 06N. Seas are in the 5-7 
ft range in S-SW swell, except 4-6 ft north of 07N.

For the forecast, moderate monsoonal winds south of the monsoon
trough will increase to moderate to fresh north of the Equator
this weekend. Moderate to occasionally fresh winds will pulse 
each night in the Papagayo region through Sat, locally strong 
Fri night. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere north of 
the monsoon trough. Seas in the 5-7 ft range in S-SW will 
prevail, building to around 8 ft offshore Guatemala this weekend 
into early next week due to a gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnants of Paine are near 18.5N115W with no deep 
convection. Residual moderate to fresh winds and seas of 6-7 ft 
are present near the center. A surface ridge prevails elsewhere 
north of 20N. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower 
pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to 
locally fresh winds, and seas of 7-8 ft north of the monsoon 
trough to near 20N between 125W and 138W. Gentle to moderate 
winds, and seas of 5-7 ft are over the rest of the open waters.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern
waters with little change in winds and seas through the end of
the week, while the remnants of Paine gradually dissipates. 
Winds of moderate or less and moderate seas are then forecast 
across the open waters this weekend into early next week.

$$
Lewitsky

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Page last modified: Thursday, 06-Oct-2022 19:15:33 UTC