Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXPZ20 KNHC 260238

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jun 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100 UTC.


Tropical Storm Celia is centered near 19.1N 112.6W at 26/0300
UTC moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60
kt. Peak seas are currently around 21 ft. Numerous moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center 
as well as from 17N to 19N between 111W and 116W. Another band of
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted 
between 210 and 450 nm in the east and southeast quadrants. Celia
is moving toward the west-northwest and this general motion is 
expected to continue over the next several days. Weakening is
forecast, and Celia is expected to become a post-tropical 
cyclone in a couple of days. Swells will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico, the southern Baja California 
peninsula, and the coast of west-central Mexico during the next 
few days. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and 
rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather 
office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for 
more details.


A tropical wave is along 89W from northwest of the Galapagos
Islands northward to across El Salvador into Belize, moving west
at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below.


The monsoon trough extends from near the Papagayo region at
10N86W to 08N102W to 15N105W, then continues south of Celia 
from 13N109W to 08N127W. The ITCZ extends from 08N127W to 09N135W
to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 83W and 108W, and
from 05N to 07N between 129W and 132W.


Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Celia, located a few hundred nautical miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds are noted
offshore Baja California Norte, with moderate to locally fresh
southerly winds in the southern Gulf of California. Light to
gentle variable winds are across the remainder of the Mexican
offshore waters. Outside of Celia, seas are 4 to 7 ft, except 2
to 4 ft in the central and northern Gulf of California.

For the forecast, seas of 8 ft or greater will continue to propagate
across the waters between Los Cabos and The Marias Islands, as
well as to the entrance to the Gulf of California through the
remainder of the weekend. A trough of low pressure is forecast 
to form well south of the southern coast of Mexico early next 
week. Environmental conditions could support some slow 
development of this system thereafter as it moves generally west-


Moderate winds are occurring in the Papagayo region, with gentle
to locally moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Light to 
gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across 
the offshore waters in southerly swell, locally 7 ft offshore 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are 
expected across the Papagayo region tonight into early Sun,
gradually shifting west-northwest with a passing tropical wave
into early next week. Light to gentle winds will prevail
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate 
southerly winds south of the monsoon trough through the upcoming
week. Seas will not vary much through the next several days.


Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Celia, located a few hundred nautical miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

A surface ridge extends across the waters north of the ITCZ and 
monsoon trough and west of Celia. Mainly light to gentle winds 
are observed under the influence of the ridge north of 20N and
west of 127W, while gentle to moderate N to NE winds are
elsewhere north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Seas are mainly 4
to 6 ft north of 10N and west of 120W in northerly swell. Moderate
to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft prevail 
south of the monsoon trough, locally 8 ft S of the equator and 
west of 100W.

For the forecast, a ridge will persist across the forecast area 
north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of Celia through
the early part of the upcoming week. A new set of SW swell will 
bring seas of 7 to 9 ft across the waters south of the Equator 
and west of 100W over the next 48 hours.


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Page last modified: Sunday, 26-Jun-2022 02:38:53 UTC