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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291513
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1402 UTC Fri May 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A Central American Gyre has developed in the eastern North 
Pacific, with the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre
encompassing the discussion waters N of the equator and E of
100W. Moderate to strong winds are noted across much of these 
waters, with seas in the 6-9 ft range. Numerous moderate and 
scattered strong convection is noted across the waters N of 03N 
and E of 94W in association with the gyre. The gyre will move 
northward, gradually encompassing Central America and southern 
Mexico. This will advect abundant moisture into portions of 
Central America through the weekend and into next week. Heavy 
rainfall is expected over portions of Central America and 
southern Mexico, especially over southern Guatemala, El Salvador,
southern Honduras, and western Nicaragua. This will bring the 
potential for life-threatening flash floods and mudslides for 
locations that receive the heaviest rainfall, especially in areas
of mountainous terrain. Please refer to products issued by your 
local weather service for more details.

Tropical cyclogenesis is possible in association with this Central
American Gyre. There is currently a medium chance of tropical 
cyclone formation within the gyre over the next couple of days, 
and a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 
five days. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for 
more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to low pres near 11N92W to
09N115W to low pres near 09N124W to low pres near 08N135W to
07N140W. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted 
from 03N to the coasts between 79W and 94W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection noted from 03N to 10N between 97W and 
130W, and from 06.5N to 11N W of 131W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more details on the 
Central American Gyre, as well as the potential for tropical 
cyclone formation offshore of southern Mexico and Central 
America.

Outside of the winds associated to the Central American Gyre,
gentle to moderate winds prevail over the open waters off
Mexico. Light to gentle winds prevail over the Gulf of
California. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail over the open waters off 
Mexico, and in the 1-3 ft range over the Gulf of California.

The Central American Gyre over the eastern Pacific will shift 
toward southern Mexico and Central America. The feature will 
produce increased winds and seas and active weather over southern
Mexico offshore waters this weekend. There is a chance for 
tropical cyclone formation offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador 
this weekend within the gyre. Strong to near gale-force N winds 
are expected this weekend over the Tehuantepec region in 
association with this. Elsewhere, high pressure will build over 
the northern waters Fri night into the weekend, resulting in 
moderate to fresh NW winds off the coast of Baja California.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see the Special Features section for more details on the 
Central American Gyre, as well as the potential for tropical 
cyclone formation offshore of Central America.

Hazardous marine conditions will prevail into early next week as
winds and seas increase over the offshore waters, in association
with a Central American Gyre. There is a chance for a tropical 
depression to form within the gyre this weekend offshore of 
Guatemala and El Salvador and drift northward. Long- period SW 
swell will continue propagating across the region through early 
next week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Deep layered low pressure across northern portions supports a weak
1014 mb low pressure is analyzed near 29N127W, with a surface 
trough extending from the low south then southwest to near to 
20N130W. Moderate to fresh NNE winds prevails N of 25N to the 
west of the low, where wave heights are up to 7 ft. Elsewhere 
gentle to locally moderate NE trades prevail N of the monsoon 
trough to 20N. 

A high pressure ridge will build across the northern waters this
weekend. Otherwise, little change in marine conditions is 
expected over these outer waters over the next couple days.

$$
AL

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Page last modified: Friday, 29-May-2020 15:13:51 UTC