Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXPZ20 KNHC 032209

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Feb 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.


Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A strong cold front will
continue to move across the Gulf of Mexico through this evening.
Strong high pressure in its wake will build southward along the 
Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico leading to a significant 
tightening of the pressure gradient across southern Mexico. Gale 
force N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec extends southward to 12N
with strong N to NE winds extending to 10N100W. Winds N of 12N are
forecast to reach storm-force this evening and diminish back to 
strong gales during the early overnight hours. Afterward, winds
will gradually diminish below gale-force early Sun. Very large 
seas will build with these gale to storm-force winds, peaking at
18-22 ft this evening into Sat morning. Please read the latest 
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 


The monsoon trough axis extends from near 08N78W to 08N86W to 
04N94W to 03N103W. The ITCZ extends from 03N103W to 04N120W to 
07N130W to 06N140W. No signficant convection observed.  


Please read the Special Features section for details on an 
upcoming Storm Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale force 
northerly winds currently prevail across the immediate Gulf 
waters where seas have built to 18 ft. Gale force winds are 
expected to end early Sun, then remain strong through Mon.

High pressure located W of the Baja California peninsula continue
to extend a ridge eastward across the offshore waters of Mexico
while high pressure N of the area has slightly shifted eastward.
This has reduced the presssure gradient, leading to moderate to
locally fresh NW winds along the Gulf of California with seas to
3 ft. Moderate nW winds extends across the entrance of the gulf
to the area of Jalisco where seas range between 5-6 ft. Light to
gentle variable winds are elsewhere with seas to 6 ft in NW

For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate 
to fresh winds in the Gulf of California are forecast to continue 
through early Sat. A decaying cold front will approach Baja 
California by late Sun, with high pressure building across the 
Baja waters with and behind it. This will produce fresh to strong
NW-N winds offshore Baja California from Cabo San Lazaro 
northward Sun night through Mon night. Similar winds will spread 
south through the Gulf of California. New NW swell will arrive 
across the offshore Baja waters ahead of the front, and with the 
fresh to strong winds.


Fresh to strong NE winds are offshore of Nicaragua, including 
the Gulf of Papagayo area where seas of 5-8 ft prevail. Moderate  
N-NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama reaching the Azuero 
Peninsula and producing seas of 4-5 ft seas. Winds are mainly 
light to gentle elsewhere, along with 4-6 ft seas primarily in SW

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf 
of Papagayo region will prevail into early next week, near gale- 
force at times, producing periods of 7-10 ft seas. Large fresh 
swell generated by an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec storm-force 
gap wind event will continue to propagate through the Guatemala 
and El Salvador offshore waters this evening through Sun. Fresh 
to strong N-NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama, mainly at 
night, through Sat night.


A dissipating stationary front extends from 30N127W to 21N139W. 
NW swell associated with the front is producing seas of 8-10 ft  
north of 26N and west of 126W. Surface high pressure and
associated ridge dominate the open waters N of 14N W of 107W. 
Moderate to locally fresh trades are elsewhere north of the ITCZ 
to 20N and west of 110W, with gentle to moderate winds across 
the remainder of the open waters. Seas of 7-9 ft cover the 
waters north of the ITCZ to about 20N and west of 110W due to NW
swell. Seas of 5-7 ft in mixed SW and NW swell prevail across 
the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds extending from a Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind event will extend well southwest by this 
evening and reach to 107W by Sat. The stationary front in the 
northwest waters will dissipate tonight while a new cold front 
pushes southeast of 30N140W by Sat. The cold front will then 
push toward Baja California through the weekend. Strong high 
pressure will build in the wake of the front with fresh to 
strong trades covering most of the waters west of 120W by Sun 
night, and moderate to fresh trades elsewhere north of the ITCZ 
by then. Similar conditions will continue into early next week. 
NW swell of 8 ft or greater associated with the front will 
mainly be across the northern waters through tonight, then push 
and expand across most of the waters west of 110W, aided by the 
fresh to strong trades.


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Page last modified: Friday, 03-Feb-2023 22:09:11 UTC