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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230932
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Sep 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 15.5N 135.3W at 23/0900 UTC 
moving WSW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. 
Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 14N to 17N 
between 134W and 137W. Scattered moderate convection is 
elsewhere from 15N to 20N between 130W and 134W, and from 09N to 
15N W of 136W. A turn toward the west to west-northwest is 
expected Monday followed by a turn toward the northwest by early 
Tuesday. Some re-strengthening could begin on Monday, but it is 
forecast to be short-lived with weakening commencing on Tuesday. 
See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Depression Mario is centered near 24.3N 113.5W at 
23/0900 UTC moving NNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with 
gusts to 35 kt. No significant convection is associated with 
Mario at this time. A north-northwest general motion should 
continue through today, before dissipating near the west coast 
of the central Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. Mario 
should gradually weaken and is expected to become a remnant low 
this morning before dissipating on Tuesday. See latest NHC 
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC 
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is from 04N to 16N with axis along 95W, moving 
west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of 10N 
between 90W and 97W. 

A tropical wave is from 07N to 16N with axis along 106W, moving 
west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 
16N between 103W and 110W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 1012 mb low pressure 
near 11N99W to 14N106W to 12N120W to 14N128W, then resumes west 
of T.S. Kiko from 13N137W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is from 01N to 07N E of 82W, from 07N 
to 10N between 84W and 87W, and from 10N to 14N between 112W and 
120W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Tropical Depression Mario is centered over the offshore waters 
west of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas to 8 ft in mixed swell from Mario 
will gradually subside this morning as Mario weakens off the 
coast of Baja California Sur between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta 
Eugenia. Please see the Special Features section above for more 
information on T.D. Mario.

A weakening cold front will move southward across the Baja 
California Norte waters late Mon into Tue. Expect a brief period 
of fresh SW gap winds over the northern Gulf of California ahead 
of the front, followed by moderate to fresh northerly winds over 
the northern Gulf on Tue. Looking ahead, SW monsoon flow will 
likely strengthen south of the Tehuantepec region Wed through 
Fri as the monsoon trough lifts northward. Low pressure may 
develop along the monsoon trough off the southern coast of 
Mexico by late week, which would further enhance wind speeds and 
build offshore seas in excess of 8 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough 
through Wed night, then become moderate to fresh through Fri as 
the monsoon trough lifts northward. Seas will generally remain 
in the 6-8 ft range, then build to 8 ft or greater by late week 
off the coast of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Mixed swell from Tropical Storm Kiko is producing a broad area 
of 8 ft seas roughly from 13N to 23N west of 130W. Moderate to 
rough seas will persist around the periphery of Kiko through Wed 
night. Please see the Special Features section above for 
information on T.S. Kiko.

The pressure gradient between Kiko and a surface ridge over the 
northern waters west of 122W is supporting moderate to fresh NE 
winds well to the N of Kiko, as indicated by recent satellite 
wind data. Elsewhere, 1012 mb low pressure near 11N99W is 
producing fresh winds, 8-9 ft seas and numerous moderate 
convection from 10N to 13N between 99W and 103W. These 
conditions will persist through Mon evening, then subside as the 
low is expected to weaken over Oaxaca, Mexico offshore waters.

A weakening cold front is forecast to move across the northern 
forecast waters late Mon through Tue. Long period NW swell will 
follow the front, with seas building to near 8-11 ft over the 
waters N of 23N and west of 125W, prevailing through late Fri.

$$
Ramos

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Page last modified: Monday, 23-Sep-2019 09:32:56 UTC