Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXPZ20 KNHC 292154

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Nov 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2050 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from low pressure 1007 mb near
10N76.5W to 07.5N99W to low pressure 1008 mb near 08.5N108.5W to 
10N121W to 07N126W. The ITCZ continues from 07N126W to 05.5N134W
to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted from 03.5N to 11.5N E of 93W, and from 05.5N to 12.5N 
between 100W and 124W.  


Strong high pressure extending southward across eastern Mexico
and into the Bay of Campeche the past 24 hours has weakened
today, and is shifting eastward across the north central Gulf of
Mexico. The resultant pressure gradient across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec has loosened, and winds diminished below gale-force 
across Tehuantepec earlier this morning. Strong N to NE winds to 
near 30 kt currently extend downwind of Tehuantepec to near 13N, 
with seas 8 to 11 ft in this area. Winds will further decrease 
this afternoon and tonight, diminishing to 20 kt or less by 
early Thu. 

Elsewhere, moderate N-NW winds are noted across the Baja
California offshore waters N of 20N, becoming N to NE from 20N
southward through the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are 6 to 7 ft
in fading NW swell across the Baja waters and 7 to 8 ft S of 20N. 
Gentle winds inside the Gulf of California have begun to back
towards the W-NW across central portions in recent hours, and
are moderate from the W across the northern Gulf. Moderate
northerly winds continue from the entrance into the Gulf to
offshore of Cabo Corrientes, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Seas are 
3 ft or less inside the Gulf. Light to gentle winds are 
elsewhere over the discussion waters between Cabo Corrientes and
Tehuantepec, where seas are in the 5-7 ft range.

For the forecast, winds and seas will gradually diminish across
and downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this afternoon and
tonight, then diminish considerably on Thu, as high pressure
dominating the Gulf of Mexico shifts eastward. High pressure 
will build across the region from the NW, bringing a return to 
moderate to locally fresh NW winds across the Baja offshore 
waters this evening through Fri. As the high pressure begins to
build into the area this evening, strong westerly gap winds are 
expected to develop across the northern and central Gulf of 
California tonight.


Fresh to strong E-NE gap winds are over the Papagayo region, 
with the fresh winds extending to near 90W, and moderate offshore
winds extending across the waters offshore of northern Nicaragua
and the Gulf of Fonseca. Seas across this area are 5 to 8 ft. 
Light to gentle offshore winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon
trough. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are noted S of 
07N, while gentle to moderate Sw winds are elsewhere S of the 
monsoon trough. Seas of 4-7 ft prevail across the area waters.
Scattered strong thunderstorms occurring across the near and 
offshore waters south of Panama and Costa Rica earlier today have
diminished slightly in areal coverage, and have shifted northward
over land and into the SW Caribbean waters.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected across 
and well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region through Thu 
night, pulsing to strong speeds at night. Moderate to locally 
fresh S to SW winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands 
will diminish tonight. Moderate W to NW swell across the 
regional waters will continue through Thu. Scattered  
thunderstorms across the near and offshore waters of Panama and 
Costa Rica will shift westward and well offshore by Thu.


High pressure NW of the area waters has begun to nosed
southeastward across the northern waters, to the waters offshore
of Baja California Sur. The pressure gradient between this area 
of high pressure and the remnant trough of Ramon near 20N129W to
11N126W, as well as the monsoon trough and ITCZ, is supporting 
moderate to locally fresh winds N of the the monsoon trough/ITCZ 
to 25N and west of 110W. Light to gentle winds are N of 25N. 
Gentle to moderate winds are found S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. 
NW swell dominates the discussion waters W of 100W, with seas in 
the 7-9 ft range in fading NW swell. Seas of 6-7 ft are noted 

For the forecast, the NW swell will continue to subside tonight.
The high pressure to the northwest will build SE across the 
region tonight and Thu and freshen NE to E winds south of 25N 
into the weekend. Associated seas are expected to build to 8-11 
ft and potentially higher to the S of 25N Fri through Sun.


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 29-Nov-2023 21:54:45 UTC