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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091459
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1400 UTC Sun Aug 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Elida is centered near 16.4N 105.4W at 09/1500
UTC moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50
kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed 
within 90 nm E and 60 nm W semicircles. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 13N to 19N 
between 101W and 110W. Elida is expected to continue to intensify
as it moves WNW, reaching hurricane strength near Socorro Island
by Mon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for 
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 09N89W to 11N99W. It 
continues from 12N110W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is noted N of 04N E of 86W.  
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 13N 
between 100W and 120W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is observed from 08N to 12N between 125W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the special features section above for more on 
T.S. Elida. The system will bring increasing winds and seas over
portions of the offshore waters between Acapulco and Puerto 
Vallarta into Mon, before impacting the Revillagigedo Islands Mon
and Tue. Heavy rainfall, rough surf, and dangerous rip currents 
are possible over coastal areas as well.

Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh winds prevail over much of 
the waters off Baja California north of Punta Eugenia, supported 
by the pressure gradient between high pressure west of the area 
and lower pressure over Mexico. Gentle to moderate northerly flow
continues from Punta Eugenia southward to Cabo San Lazaro. Light
to gentle winds are noted south of Baja California Sur and 
elsewhere off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Gentle to 
moderate SE winds continue across the Gulf of California.

Moderate to locally fresh NW winds will prevail across the 
waters north of Cabo San Lazaro through today, then diminish 
through Mon. Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse for the 
next several nights across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds prevail south of the 
monsoon trough. Wave heights are in the 4-6 ft range.

The gentle to moderate southerly winds will persist south of the
monsoon trough for the next several days. Moderate to fresh 
winds will occasionally pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo region 
through the middle of the week, mainly at night. Long- period 
southerly swell near the Galapagos Islands will propagate 
northward through tonight. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the special features section above for more 
information about T.S. Elida.

The subtropical ridge extends across the waters north of 20N.
Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are noted north of the 
monsoon trough and west of 120W, with gentle to moderate breezes
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Little change in marine 
conditions is expected in this region over the next several days.

Farther south, generally moderate southerly flow is noted across
the forecast waters south of 10N. Long-period southerly swell has
crossed the equator, but is starting to subside. Monsoon flow 
has freshened between 100W and 120W. The locally generated wind 
waves has combined with the southerly swell, building seas to 6 
to 8 ft roughly from 05N and 10N between 105W and 120W.

$$
AL

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Page last modified: Sunday, 09-Aug-2020 14:59:46 UTC