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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



392 
AXNT20 KNHC 140559
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
159 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Melissa is centered near 40.2N 56.7W at 14/0300 
UTC, or 485 nm SSW of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving ENE at 16 
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum 
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 39N to 41N between 52W-55W. A further 
increase in forward speed and a turn toward the east are expected
on Monday, with that motion continuing into Wednesday. Additional 
weakening is expected tonight, and Melissa is forecast to become 
a post-tropical remnant low later tonight or early Monday. See 
the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC for more details. 

...Heavy rainfall event for Central America...

A 1010 mb surface low is centered over the SW Caribbean Sea just 
east of Nicaragua, near 15N82W. This broad area of low pressure 
continues to support scattered heavy showers and strong tstms S 
of 20N W of 74W. The strong convection is concentrated east of 
the low pressure from 10N-20N between 74W-80W. This system is 
forecast to continue moving west- northwest across northern 
Honduras, southern Belize, and northern Guatemala, which is likely
to inhibit tropical cyclone formation for the next couple of days
due to land interaction. By Wednesday, however, the disturbance 
is forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche where 
conditions could become a little more conducive for some 
organization to occur. Regardless of development, this system is 
expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America 
during the next few days, which could cause flooding and 
mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. See the latest NHC 
Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 
KNHC for more details. 

...Tropical wave over Africa...

A strong tropical wave, along 17W from 17N southward, moving west 
at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N
to 18N between 16W-20W. The wave is accompanied by a broad area 
of low pressure. Although showers and thunderstorms associated 
with the system decreased somewhat earlier this evening, satellite
imagery indicates that they are beginning to increase once again.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during 
the next couple of days while the disturbance moves west-northwest
to northwest over or just east of the Cabo Verde Islands. Strong 
upper-level winds should prevent any further development by 
midweek. Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Cabo 
Verde Islands on Monday and Tuesday. Interests in and around the 
Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system. 
This system has a medium chance for tropical development through 
the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis from 16N along
44W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is well depicted in model guidance.
Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-16N between 40W-46W.

A tropical wave analyzed with axis along 56W from 05N-18N, moving
W at 10-15 kt. This wave is also depicted in model guidance. Scattered
showers are noted across the northern half of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N16W near Guinea-Bissau to 
05N29W to 08N40W. The ITCZ is from 09N46W to 06N55W. Aside from 
the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm north of the
ITCZ between 46W-49W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the low eastward to 30N86W to
South Padre Island near 26N97W. Scattered showers are in the 
vicinity of the boundary. To the south, a surface trough is 
seen from 21N89W to 17N91W with scattered showers to the west
in the Bay of Campeche from 18N-19N between 91W-94W. Surface 
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer 
data depicts light to gentle easterly winds across most of the 
basin.

A stationary front will move N of the Gulf as a warm front by Mon
night. Otherwise, winds and seas should be quiescent for the next
few days over the Gulf. On Wed, a weak cold front will reach the 
NW Gulf and move to the east with little wind or wave impacts. On 
Thu, a trough may move across Central America and reach the SW 
Gulf. This system currently has a low chance of becoming a 
tropical cyclone during the next 5 days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for the heavy rainfall
event currently occurring over Central America and the W Caribbean.

Fair weather prevails across the eastern half of the basin mainly
east of 75W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades
across the basin. 

Broad low pressure over the SW Caribbean will slowly move WNW 
across Central America during the next few days. Fresh to strong E
to SE winds are likely mainly over the NW part of the Caribbean 
between the Yucatan Peninsula and Honduras late Mon into Tue as a 
surface trough forms on the E side of the low in that general 
area. Showers and thunderstorms will continue over much of the 
western Caribbean through late Tue. The low pressure system has a 
low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 5
days. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for information on 
Tropical Storm Melissa and the tropical waves moving across the
basin.

A surface trough extends across the west-central Atlantic from 
near 30N56W to 24N64W to 22N74W. Scattered showers are seen in 
the vicinity of the trough axis west of 66W. Farther east, a 
surface trough extending from 26N57W to 21N62W is generating 
scattered moderate convection from 20N-25N between 50W-60W. In the
eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N12W to 23N30W to
28N47W. There is no deep convection associated with this front at
this time. 

A Bermuda high currently near 36N71W will maintain relatively 
quiet conditions through Tue. Beginning Wed morning, moderate to 
strong SW winds will develop east of northern Florida ahead the 
the next cold front. The cold front will reach the waters E of 
northern Florida Wed night, then will extend from about 31N65W to 
southern Florida by Fri morning. N to NE winds behind the cold 
front will only moderate to fresh speeds. Seas should generally 
remain below 8 ft for the next several days over the area. No 
tropical cyclone activity is expected during the next several days
as well.

$$
MMTorres