Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 182336

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
635 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.


...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

The combination of high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic and
relatively low pressure over northern South America is expected 
to produce strong winds near the coast of Colombia during the next
couple of days. The winds are expected to be strongest and reach 
gale force at night with sea heights forecast to peak as high as 
19 ft Wed. Low pres developing off the SE coast of the United
States will weaken the ridge over the western Atlc enough to allow
the gales to abate by Fri night. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit
our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for 
more details.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 
07N12W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 00N32W to the
coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is present within 150 nm either side of a line
from 07S24W to 02N46W.


Fair and mild weather conditions prevail across the entire Gulf 
of Mexico today supported by deep-layer ridging and subsidence
overhead. The only notable hazard today is areas of dense fog
within 30 nm of the coast from Pensacola Florida westward. The fog
is expected to mix out by Wed afternoon as a cold front moves 
into the northern Gulf. Surface winds are generally light to
moderate from the SE, strongest over Bay of Campeche. Seas are 
generally in the 3 to 5 ft range, except for the NE waters where
seas are running 1 to 3 ft.

Wind and sea conditions are expected to deteriorate as a cold 
front enters the NW Gulf tonight, then slowly sinks southward 
through Wed night. A reinforcing cold front will then help push 
the front quickly across the remainder of the Gulf Thu through 
Fri. Gale force conditions are possible west of the reinforcing 
front offshore of Tampico, Mexico early Fri morning, and Veracruz,
Mexico later in the day Fri and Fri night. Elsewhere, expect 
strengthening NE winds and building seas across the region 
following the second cold front. Winds and seas over the basin
will abate as a high pres ridge builds S over the Gulf in the 
wake of the fronts.

A gale warning is currently in effect for portions of the south-
central Caribbean Sea. For details on this hazard, see the 
warning section above. Otherwise, moderate to strong trade-wind 
flow continues across much of the region today. Visible satellite
images show patches of low-level clouds and isolated shallow 
showers moving within the trade wind flow across the bulk of the 
area. However, the showers are expected to be light and short- 
lived as abundant dry air lies in the mid and upper levels of the
atmosphere. Seas are quite high near the coast of Colombia, up to
18 ft as of earlier today, with sea conditions notably less 
hazardous over the NW Caribbean sea.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong 
trades across the central Caribbean through Thu night, pulsing to 
gale force off the coast of Colombia each night. High pressure 
will begin to weaken N of the area Thu night, helping to diminish
winds Fri and Sat. 


Surface high pressure ridges WSW from a 1038 mb high centered 
just E of the Azores near 40N20W to the E cast of Florida.
Subsidence and dry air aloft dominate the subtropical and 
tropical Atlantic basin this evening, resulting in fair weather 
across the majority of the area. The only exception is over the 
central Atlantic, where an upper-level trough extending SSW from 
32N58W to 18N64W is supporting patchy cloudiness and isolated 
showers north of 18N between 52W and 62W. Seas are highest over 
the central and eastern Atlantic in long period N swell.

The high pressure extending WSW from the Azores high will shift 
eastward ahead of a cold front moving off the SE U.S. coast Wed. 
The front will briefly stall Wed night and Thu as a mid to upper- 
level trough approaches from the W. The mid to upper-level trough 
will trigger development of low pres along the front E of Georgia 
and the Carolinas Thu night. The developing low will then drag the
cold front SE across the SE Bahamas and into the central Atlantic
by Sat night. Gale conditions are possible west of the front 
across the northern waters Thu night and Fri, with large N to NE 
swell expected to impact the area W of a line from 32N53W to 
26N76W by Fri night.


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 18-Feb-2020 23:36:19 UTC