Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 210523

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jan 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.


...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

The surface pressure gradient, between W Atlantic Ocean high 
pressure and lower pressure in Colombia and in Panama, will 
continue to support pulsing winds to minimal gale force within 
about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia tonight and Fri night. Sea 
heights will build to a range from 8-12 ft. As the ridge shifts
eastward over the weekend, the pressure gradient will weaken, 
leading to fresh to strong winds in the south-central basin
through the middle of next week. 

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

Strong high pressure is rapidly building behind a cold front that
extends from the Florida Big Bend SW to Veracruz, Mexico offshore
waters. This is supporting ongoing gale-force northerly winds over 
the Tampico offshore waters with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Near gale force 
winds will continue along the eastern Mexico offshore waters through 
late Fri with gale conditions shifting to the Veracruz region 
tonight. The front will extend from Sarasota, Florida to the central 
Bay of Campeche Fri evening when winds and seas will diminish below 
gale-force. However, fresh to strong N to NE winds will gradually 
diminish through Sun.  

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the 
National Hurricane Center, at the website, 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. 


The monsoon trough remains mainly inland over Africa, extending 
about 120 nm offshore Liberia to near 06N13W. The ITCZ continues 
from 06N13W to 05N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. No 
convection is observed at this time. 


Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a
gale warning for the Gulf of Mexico. 

A weak 1017 mb low pressure formed near the Florida Big Bend and 
extends a cold front southwest to the western Bay of Campeche. 
Fresh to strong N-NE winds are behind the boundary, with near 
gale force winds west of 95W where seas are 9 to 11 ft. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing along this 
front. Gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are over the 
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the low will move NE into the SE U.S. and the cold 
front will move SE through the Gulf and exit the basin Sat. Behind 
the front, gales have developed offshore Tampico, Mexico, and these 
gales will expand S and E, including offshore Veracruz, into Fri. 
High pressure will build across the area in the wake of the front 
then shift eastward through Mon, at which time fresh to strong 
southerly flow develops over the NW Gulf in advance of the next cold 
front. This front will move off the Texas coast Mon, and will 
quickly reach the eastern Gulf Tue and Tue night. Mainly moderate to 
fresh northerly winds will follow behind this front.


Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a  
gale warning for the Caribbean Sea. 

Dry air subsidence from aloft supports fair weather over most of 
the basin. Strong high pressure over the SW N Atlantic waters is 
supporting fresh trade winds in the eastern Caribbean and fresh 
to strong winds in the south-central region where seas are in 
the 7 to 9 ft range. Sea heights are 5 to 6 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient over the SW N Atlantic 
waters will continue to support pulsing winds to gale force within 
about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia tonight and Fri night. Seas 
will build with these winds. The coverage area of the fresh to 
strong trade winds will cover mainly the waters between 68W and 80W 
through Fri. Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail 
elsewhere. A weakening cold front is forecast to enter the far NW 
Caribbean Sun.


Strong high pressure ridging dominates the western and central 
Atlantic waters. A surface trough extends along 79W allowing for 
isolated showers and thunderstorms just east of south Florida. A 
recent satellite scatterometer pass reveals gentle to moderate 
winds west of 65W. Farther east, a dissipating cold front 
extends from 31N36W SW to 25N47W. Fresh to strong NE winds are 
behind the front, north of 27N and east of 45W.  Elsewhere 
moderate to locally fresh trades prevail. Seas west of 60W are 4 
to 6 ft, while between 52W and 35W seas are 9 to 12 ft, and 7 to 
9 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure located northeast of 
Bermuda will shift northeastward allowing for the next cold front to 
move offshore northern Florida on Fri, accompanied by fresh to 
strong winds. Low pressure forecast to develop along the frontal 
boundary over the Gulf of Mexico will move into the western Atlantic 
Sat evening, then move across the northern forecast waters on Sun. 
High pressure in its wake will shift eastward through Tue as another 
cold front moves across the waters NE of northern Florida through 
Tue night. Fresh southerly winds will precede this front.


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Page last modified: Friday, 21-Jan-2022 05:24:11 UTC