000
AXNT20 KNHC 122053
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue May 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2050 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa
near 11N15W and extends SW to near 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from
05N19W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N
to 07N between 13W and 20W, and from 01N to 05N between 24W and
32W. 

GULF OF AMERICA...

A frontal boundary is in the eastern Gulf, with a surface trough
over the NW waters. A 1017 mb high centered in the SW Gulf near 
22N92W. The pressure gradient between the high and surface trough
is supporting moderate to fresh winds over the north central Gulf.
Light winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to
locally moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range
in the north central Gulf, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the front will drift eastward before exiting 
the basin on Tue. Pulsing moderate to fresh W winds are expected 
across the northern Gulf through early Tue as a trough moves 
eastward over the region. Otherwise, high pressure will build over
the basin this week. A tightening pressure gradient between 
deepening low pressure in the central United States and the 
aforementioned high will support fresh to locally strong S to SE 
winds and rough seas offshore of Texas and Mexico Tue through late
week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

The pressure gradient between high pressure in the central 
Atlantic and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong E 
winds in the south central Caribbean. Seas in this area are 8 to 
12 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere E of 80W, with seas 
in the 6-9 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft,
are in the western Caribbean. 

For the forecast, widespread fresh to strong E winds will prevail 
over the central Caribbean through Tue afternoon as a tight 
pressure gradient prevails between the Colombian low and high 
pressure in the central Atlantic. Pulsing near-gale force winds 
will be possible in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore of 
northwestern Colombia. Rough seas will accompany these winds, with
localized very rough seas occurring near and to the west of the 
strongest winds. Winds and seas are expected to diminish midweek. 
Moderate to fresh trade winds will pulse through late this week 
in the eastern Caribbean. Easterly swell will bring rough seas 
through the Atlantic passages into the eastern basin. Pulsing 
fresh to strong E winds will develop in the Gulf of Honduras by 
midweek. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating frontal boundary is over the waters from 31N58W to 
30N70W. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion
waters. Light to gentle winds prevail N of 27N between 35W and
65W. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are
in the 4-6 ft range N of 20N, and 6-9 ft S of 20N. 

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong S to SE winds and 
rough seas will prevail offshore of Florida through Tue morning 
as a tight pressure gradient prevails between a cold front in the
eastern Gulf of America and high pressure in the central 
Atlantic. Periods of near-gale force winds will be possible 
offshore of northern Florida tonight. The cold front will move 
into the western Atlantic on Tue. Winds will turn to the W behind
the front and weaken before the front lifts northeastward out of 
the region on Wed. Pulsing fresh to strong E winds are expected 
each afternoon and evening offshore of northern Hispaniola through
Wed. Elsewhere, moderate to locally strong trade winds and rough 
seas in mixed NE and SE swell will prevail south of 25N this week,
including across the Atlantic passages into the eastern 
Caribbean. 

$$
AL