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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 171113
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
713 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1051 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential for Heavy Rainfall/Flooding, from NW Venezuela and N
Colombia to Central America and southern Mexico and the Yucatan
Peninsula...

Expect higher localized totals near strong topographical forcing.
Flash floods and mudslides are the primary hazards during this 
event, which has been ongoing for the last few days.

The GFS model for 250 mb, for 500 mb, and for 700 mb shows one 
inverted trough in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, and a 
second inverted trough from El Salvador southwestward into the 
eastern Pacific Ocean.

Currently: Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 10N to 13N between 
78W and 82W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers 
from 10N northward between 87W and 93W, and in the coastal plains 
of southern Mexico within a 30 nm radius of 16N96W. Isolated to 
widely scattered moderate and locally strong rainshowers cover the
rest of the area, including in the Caribbean Sea from 08N in 
Colombia northward from 70W westward.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W, from 17N 
southward, moving W 15 to 20 knots. Rainshowers are possible from 
10N to 20N between Africa and 35W.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern islands of the
Caribbean Sea, along 61W, from 17N southward, moving W 15 to 20 
knots. This wave is well depicted in model guidance. Widely 
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 10N to
15N between 54W and 61W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W, from 20N southward, 
moving W 10 to 15 knots. A 1012 mb low pressure center is along 
the tropical wave near 12N. Isolated to widely scattered moderate
and locally strong rainshowers cover the rest of the area, 
including in the Caribbean Sea from 08N in Colombia northward
from 70W westward. The wave is moving through the areas of
pre-existing upper level inverted troughs.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Mauritania and Senegal near 16N17W, to 13N22W 08N31W and 08N36W. 
The ITCZ continues from 08N36W to 08N45W, and to 07N52W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 05N to 09N
between 21W and 33W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers
are elsewhere from 10N southward from 50W eastward. The widely 
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers, that cover the 
area that is from 10N to 15N between 54W and 61W, is to the east 
of the 61W tropical wave.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The GFS model shows a 700 mb inverted trough in the NE Gulf of 
Mexico near 28N90W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is on top
of the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated to widely
scattered moderate and locally strong rainshowers cover the waters
that are from 92W eastward.

The current SE U.S.A. stationary front, with deep tropical 
moisture, continues to support the precipitation that is in the NE
Gulf of Mexico. Some of this activity may contain gusty winds 
causing rough seas. Moderate to fresh SW winds are expected in 
the NE Gulf of Mexico, ahead of the front, through Sunday 
evening. The northern part of a tropical wave will move from the 
western Caribbean Sea to the far-south central Gulf of Mexico on 
Wednesday, accompanied by ample deep moisture. Fresh to strong 
winds will pulse in the western Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters 
through Monday. High pressure will build westward across the rest 
of the area through Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 250 mb, for 500 mb, and for 700 mb shows one 
inverted trough in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, and a 
second inverted trough from El Salvador southwestward into the 
eastern Pacific Ocean.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 10N to 13N between 78W and 82W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers from 10N
northward between 87W and 93W, and in the coastal plains of
southern Mexico within a 30 nm radius of 16N96W. Isolated to 
widely scattered moderate and locally strong rainshowers cover the
rest of the area, including in the Caribbean Sea from 08N in
Colombia northward from 70W westward. Please read the SPECIAL 
FEATURES section for details about the potential for heavy
rain amounts and the flooding in Central America.

The monsoon trough is along 11N/12N from 71W in NW coastal
Venezuela beyond SW Costa Rica. A 1012 mb low pressure center is
along the monsoon trough near 81W.

An 83W tropical wave will move across the rest of the western 
Caribbean Sea through this evening. The passage of this wave, 
along with high pressure to the north of the area, will continue 
to support fresh to near gale-force trade winds in the SW 
Caribbean Sea tonight, and in the NW Caribbean Sea on Saturday and
Sunday. Fresh to strong winds will resume in the south central 
Caribbean Sea on Sunday evening, being supported by the passage of
a new tropical wave that currently is across the Lesser Antilles.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N
northward from 50W westward. An upper level trough extends from a
29N52W cyclonic circulation center, to 25N62W and 25N75W, beyond
NW Cuba. A surface trough is along 60W/61W from 20N to 29N.
Isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong rainshowers
are from 20N to 30N from 50W westward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure center that 
is near 34N31W, to a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near 
34N48W, to Bermuda, to 25N78W in the Bahamas, across south Florida,
to 24N90W in the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure, currently dominating the forecast area, will begin
to move northward, and be north of the area on Monday night. A trough,
currently is about 230 nm east of 65W from 19N to 29N. The trough
will track westward quickly across the eastern and central 
forecast waters this weekend, and into the western part of the 
area on Monday, before moving inland across Florida on Tuesday. 
The trough is expected to be accompanied by scattered rainshowers
and thunderstorms.

$$
MT