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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 251058

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
658 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1045 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N12W to near 
04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 03S30W to the coast of 
Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is along the 
monsoon trough from 03N-05N between 13W-18W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is along the ITCZ from 01S-06S between


A 1007 mb low is centered over E Texas near 33N94W. A cold front 
extends SW to S Texas. Radar imagery shows widely scattered 
moderate convection over the NW Gulf of Mexico W of a line from
Lafayette Louisiana to Brownsville Texas. A 1019 mb high is over 
the W Atlantic near 29N72W producing 10-20 kt SE return flow over
the Gulf of Mexico. Weakest winds are over the NE Gulf, and 
strongest winds are over the W Gulf W of 90W. Light to medium 
smoke is over the SW Gulf W of a line from Corpus Christi Texas to
Merida Mexico. In the upper levels, a sharp trough is over Texas,
while a ridge is over the Gulf. 

A cold front will move off the Texas coast this morning. 
Thunderstorms will accompany the front as it shifts east across 
the forecast waters before stalling over the SE Gulf Fri night and
dissipate by Sun. High pressure will build in the wake of the 
front and prevail through early next week. 


A 1010 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 08N74W. Isolated 
moderate convection is over N Colombia and NW Venezuela. Scattered
showers are over the SE Caribbean S of 16N and E of 70W. More 
scattered showers are over Hispaniola and E Cuba. 10-20 kt 
tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along 
the coast of N Colombia. In the upper levels, strong subsidence 
covers the entire Caribbean Sea. 

Winds will pulse to fresh to strong at night off the coast of 
Colombia each night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will 
prevail. Trade winds will increase early next week as high 
pressure builds north of the region.


A 1019 mb high is over the western Atlantic near 29N72W. A 1016 mb
low is near 25N64W, depicted by a swirl of low clouds. A 1014 mb 
low is over the central Atlantic near 30N56W. A surface trough
extends S from the low to 22N60W. Scattered showers are within 
120 nm of the trough. Another 1013 mb low is centered over the 
central Atlantic near 33N48W. Scattered showers are well E of the
low N of 27N between 35W-41W. Another surface trough is over the 
central Atlantic from 22N44W to 14N59W. Scattered showers are 
within 90 nm of the trough. 

High pressure over the forecast waters will retreat eastward 
today ahead of a cold front that will move off the northeast 
Florida coast Fri evening. The front will move east and stall from
Bermuda to the northern Florida Keys by late Sat, then dissipate 
as it moves slowly northward through early next week. 

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